{"id":9034,"date":"2026-04-24T12:27:54","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T12:27:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=9034"},"modified":"2026-04-24T12:28:41","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T12:28:41","slug":"finances-publiques-le-senegal-progresse-mais-la-dette-freine-l-avenir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=9034","title":{"rendered":"FINANCES PUBLIQUES : LE S\u00c9N\u00c9GAL PROGRESSE MAIS LA DETTE FREINE L \u2019AVENIR"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par Pr Amath Ndiaye,Economiste<\/strong><\/p>\n

Selon le dernier rapport trimestriel d’ex\u00e9cution budg\u00e9taire, en 2025, le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal affiche des finances publiques en am\u00e9lioration, avec un d\u00e9ficit en baisse et des recettes dynamiques. Mais derri\u00e8re ces r\u00e9sultats encourageants, une contrainte majeure s\u2019impose : le poids croissant de la dette, dont le service absorbe une part consid\u00e9rable des ressources publiques. Entre ajustement budg\u00e9taire, ralentissement de la croissance et besoin de financements ext\u00e9rieurs, le pays fait face \u00e0 une \u00e9quation d\u00e9licate pour relancer durablement son \u00e9conomie.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Une ex\u00e9cution budg\u00e9taire 2025 globalement satisfaisante\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal peut se pr\u00e9valoir, en 2025, d\u2019une am\u00e9lioration tangible de la gestion de ses finances publiques. Les recettes budg\u00e9taires se sont \u00e9tablies \u00e0 4 477 milliards FCFA, soit 98,8% des pr\u00e9visions, en progression de 11,8% sur un an . Dans le m\u00eame temps, les d\u00e9penses ont \u00e9t\u00e9 relativement contenues, permettant de ramener le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire \u00e0 6,44% du PIB, contre une cible initiale de 7,82%. Le d\u00e9ficit primaire, quant \u00e0 lui, s\u2019est fortement r\u00e9duit pour s\u2019\u00e9tablir autour de \u20131,4% du PIB, traduisant un effort r\u00e9el de consolidation. \u00c0 premi\u00e8re vue, cette trajectoire semble rapprocher le pays de son objectif de 3% de d\u00e9ficit \u00e0 moyen terme.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Un ajustement budg\u00e9taire qui freine la croissance hors hydrocarbures\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cette am\u00e9lioration repose toutefois sur un ajustement budg\u00e9taire qui n\u2019est pas sans effets collat\u00e9raux. La hausse des pr\u00e9l\u00e8vements et la compression des d\u00e9penses ont contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 affaiblir la demande int\u00e9rieure, pesant sur la consommation et l\u2019investissement. Mais surtout, cet ajustement affecte directement la croissance hors hydrocarbures, qui constitue le socle r\u00e9el de cr\u00e9ation d\u2019emplois. Dans un contexte o\u00f9 les attentes reposaient sur la mont\u00e9e en puissance du p\u00e9trole et du gaz, la situation se complique davantage : la stagnation des exportations p\u00e9troli\u00e8res, \u00e0 partir de 2026, va priver l\u2019\u00e9conomie d\u2019un relais de croissance essentiel. D\u00e8s lors, la dynamique globale s\u2019en trouve fragilis\u00e9e, avec une croissance qui pourrait chuter entre 2,2% et 2,5%, un niveau insuffisant pour r\u00e9pondre aux d\u00e9fis \u00e9conomiques et sociaux. Il devient ainsi particuli\u00e8rement difficile de concilier discipline budg\u00e9taire et relance \u00e9conomique.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Le poids de la dette : principal verrou budg\u00e9taire\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Au-del\u00e0 du d\u00e9ficit, le v\u00e9ritable probl\u00e8me des finances publiques s\u00e9n\u00e9galaises r\u00e9side d\u00e9sormais dans la charge de la dette. En 2025, les int\u00e9r\u00eats ont atteint 1 088 milliards FCFA, soit environ 5 \u00e0 6% du PIB . Plus pr\u00e9occupant encore, leur \u00e9volution : entre 2024 et 2025, les int\u00e9r\u00eats ont augment\u00e9 d\u2019environ 32%, contre seulement 11,8% pour les recettes publiques. Autrement dit, la charge de la dette progresse pr\u00e8s de trois fois plus vite que les ressources de l\u2019\u00c9tat. Elle d\u00e9passe d\u00e9sormais les budgets cumul\u00e9s de la sant\u00e9, de l\u2019enseignement sup\u00e9rieur, de la recherche, de l\u2019innovation et de l\u2019agriculture. Dans ces conditions, m\u00eame un retour \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9quilibre primaire ne suffirait pas \u00e0 r\u00e9tablir l\u2019\u00e9quilibre budg\u00e9taire. Le pays est pris dans une spirale d\u2019endettement marqu\u00e9e par des financements plus co\u00fbteux et \u00e0 maturit\u00e9s plus courtes, une dynamique que la guerre au Moyen-Orient pourrait accentuer par l’inflation et la hausse des taux d’int\u00e9r\u00eat.<\/p>\n

Une trajectoire \u00e0 reconstruire : vers un appui du FMI et une restructuration ?\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Face \u00e0 ces contraintes, atteindre un d\u00e9ficit de 3% du PIB appara\u00eet extr\u00eamement difficile sans inflexion majeure. Le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal a aujourd\u2019hui besoin d\u2019une trajectoire \u00e9conomique cr\u00e9dible et lisible, soutenue par le FMI, afin de restaurer la confiance des partenaires et d\u2019attirer les financements ext\u00e9rieurs indispensables \u00e0 la relance et \u00e0 la transformation structurelle de l\u2019\u00e9conomie. Mais au-del\u00e0 de cet ancrage, une conclusion s\u2019impose : sans action sur la dette elle-m\u00eame, l\u2019ajustement budg\u00e9taire restera insuffisant. Une suspension ou une restructuration du service de la dette pourrait offrir une respiration budg\u00e9taire, lib\u00e9rer des ressources pour l\u2019investissement et redonner de l\u2019\u00e9lan \u00e0 la croissance.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Pr Amath NDIAYE\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

FASEG-UCAD<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par Pr Amath Ndiaye,Economiste Selon le dernier rapport trimestriel d’ex\u00e9cution budg\u00e9taire, en 2025, le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal affiche des finances publiques en am\u00e9lioration, avec un d\u00e9ficit en…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8412,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","wpcat-15-id"],"yoast_head":"\nFINANCES PUBLIQUES : LE S\u00c9N\u00c9GAL PROGRESSE MAIS LA DETTE FREINE L \u2019AVENIR - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=9034\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FINANCES PUBLIQUES : LE S\u00c9N\u00c9GAL PROGRESSE MAIS LA DETTE FREINE L \u2019AVENIR - 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