{"id":8822,"date":"2026-02-07T15:26:48","date_gmt":"2026-02-07T15:26:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=8822"},"modified":"2026-02-07T15:26:48","modified_gmt":"2026-02-07T15:26:48","slug":"gestion-integree-de-la-dette-publique-du-deficit-budgetaire-et-options-avancees-de-renegociation-et-de-restructuration-de-letat-du-senegal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=8822","title":{"rendered":"Gestion int\u00e9gr\u00e9e de la dette publique, du d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire et options avanc\u00e9es de ren\u00e9gociation et de restructuration de l\u2019\u00c9tat du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Par\u00a0: Dr. Cheikhna Hamallah NDIAYE, PhD<\/strong>
\nLead \u00c9conomiste \u2013 Expert en finances publiques, commande publique, dette souveraine et financement du d\u00e9veloppement<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. CONTEXTE MACRO-BUDG\u00c9TAIRE ET DIAGNOSTIC STRAT\u00c9GIQUE<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    La trajectoire actuelle des finances publiques du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal refl\u00e8te une contrainte macro-budg\u00e9taire syst\u00e9mique<\/strong>, r\u00e9sultant de la combinaison d\u2019un endettement \u00e9lev\u00e9, d\u2019un d\u00e9ficit structurel persistant et d\u2019une pression croissante sur la tr\u00e9sorerie publique (FMI, 2025 ; Cour des comptes, 2024).<\/p>\n

    I.1. Niveau et qualit\u00e9 de l\u2019endettement public<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u00c0 fin 2024, la dette publique du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal a \u00e9t\u00e9 r\u00e9\u00e9valu\u00e9e \u00e0 plus de 119 % du PIB<\/strong>, \u00e0 la suite des audits conjoints du FMI et de la Cour des comptes. Cette r\u00e9vision substantielle met en \u00e9vidence :<\/p>\n

      \n
    • une accumulation de passifs non pleinement int\u00e9gr\u00e9s dans les statistiques officielles ant\u00e9rieures ;<\/li>\n
    • des m\u00e9canismes de financement insuffisamment transparents ;<\/li>\n
    • une sous-estimation prolong\u00e9e du risque de soutenabilit\u00e9 (Cour des comptes, 2024).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      La dette appara\u00eet ainsi moins comme un simple stock financier que comme le sympt\u00f4me d\u2019un d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibre budg\u00e9taire structurel<\/strong>, entretenu par un recours prolong\u00e9 \u00e0 des financements co\u00fbteux (FMI, 2025).<\/p>\n

      I.2. Dynamique du d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire<\/strong><\/p>\n

      Les donn\u00e9es issues d\u2019audits ind\u00e9pendants indiquent que le d\u00e9ficit r\u00e9el a largement d\u00e9pass\u00e9 les annonces officielles :<\/p>\n

        \n
      • d\u00e9ficit moyen sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 10 % du PIB<\/strong> sur la p\u00e9riode 2019\u20132023 ;<\/li>\n
      • d\u00e9ficit estim\u00e9 \u00e0 \u201313,4 % du PIB en 2024<\/strong> (CountryEconomy, 2024).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        Cette situation s\u2019explique principalement par :<\/p>\n

          \n
        • une base fiscale encore \u00e9troite ;<\/li>\n
        • une rigidit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9e des d\u00e9penses courantes ;<\/li>\n
        • des besoins d\u2019investissement public importants pour soutenir la croissance et la coh\u00e9sion sociale.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

          I.3. Contraintes de tr\u00e9sorerie et compression de l\u2019espace budg\u00e9taire<\/strong><\/p>\n

          Le service de la dette (int\u00e9r\u00eats et amortissements) absorbe une part croissante des recettes publiques, r\u00e9duisant significativement l\u2019espace budg\u00e9taire disponible pour :<\/p>\n

            \n
          • les investissements sociaux (sant\u00e9, \u00e9ducation) ;<\/li>\n
          • les d\u00e9penses climatiques ;<\/li>\n
          • les investissements productifs \u00e0 fort rendement socio-\u00e9conomique (DG Tr\u00e9sor, 2024).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

             <\/p>\n

              \n
            1. LE D\u00c9FICIT PUBLIC COMME M\u00c9CANISME CENTRAL D\u2019ACCUMULATION DE LA DETTE<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              II.1. Caract\u00e8re structurel du d\u00e9ficit<\/strong><\/p>\n

              Le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire s\u00e9n\u00e9galais pr\u00e9sente un caract\u00e8re structurel et persistant<\/strong>, alimentant m\u00e9caniquement la dynamique d\u2019endettement. Sans r\u00e9duction cr\u00e9dible du d\u00e9ficit primaire, toute strat\u00e9gie de gestion de la dette demeure insuffisante (FMI, 2025).<\/p>\n

              II.2. Effet \u00ab boule de neige \u00bb budg\u00e9taire<\/strong><\/p>\n

              Un d\u00e9ficit \u00e9lev\u00e9 implique :<\/p>\n

                \n
              • un recours accru \u00e0 l\u2019emprunt ;<\/li>\n
              • une augmentation du service de la dette ;<\/li>\n
              • une compression de l\u2019espace budg\u00e9taire.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                Ce m\u00e9canisme auto-entretenu renforce la vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 macro\u00e9conomique et limite la capacit\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00c9tat \u00e0 absorber les chocs exog\u00e8nes.<\/p>\n

                 <\/p>\n

                III. LIMITES DES MODALIT\u00c9S CLASSIQUES DE FINANCEMENT PUBLIC<\/strong><\/p>\n

                Les instruments traditionnels de financement (eurobonds, pr\u00eats bilat\u00e9raux et multilat\u00e9raux classiques) pr\u00e9sentent aujourd\u2019hui plusieurs limites structurelles :<\/p>\n

                  \n
                • alourdissement du service de la dette ;<\/li>\n
                • exposition accrue aux risques de taux et de change ;<\/li>\n
                • tensions sociales li\u00e9es aux conditionnalit\u00e9s budg\u00e9taires (Reuters, 2025).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                  Ces contraintes justifient une r\u00e9orientation strat\u00e9gique<\/strong> vers des m\u00e9canismes de financement plus soutenables et innovants.<\/p>\n

                   <\/p>\n

                    \n
                  1. OPTIONS STRAT\u00c9GIQUES DE REN\u00c9GOCIATION ET DE RESTRUCTURATION DE LA DETTE EXT\u00c9RIEURE<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                    IV.1. Ren\u00e9gociation bilat\u00e9rale cibl\u00e9e<\/strong><\/p>\n

                    Une ren\u00e9gociation proactive de la dette ext\u00e9rieure avec les principaux cr\u00e9anciers bilat\u00e9raux, notamment la Chine<\/strong> et la France<\/strong>, constitue une premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape strat\u00e9gique.
                    \nCette approche permettrait :<\/p>\n

                      \n
                    • des allongements de maturit\u00e9 ;<\/li>\n
                    • des r\u00e9ductions de coupons ;<\/li>\n
                    • une am\u00e9lioration du profil de liquidit\u00e9 \u00e0 court et moyen terme.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                      IV.2. Articulation strat\u00e9gique avec le FMI et les institutions r\u00e9gionales<\/strong><\/p>\n

                      Un dialogue renforc\u00e9 et techniquement pr\u00e9par\u00e9 avec le FMI est essentiel pour :<\/p>\n

                        \n
                      • restaurer la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 macro\u00e9conomique ;<\/li>\n
                      • d\u00e9bloquer des financements concessionnels ;<\/li>\n
                      • \u00e9viter une restructuration d\u00e9sordonn\u00e9e assortie de conditionnalit\u00e9s excessivement contraignantes (FMI, 2025).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                        Dans cette perspective, le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal gagnerait \u00e0 renforcer ses capacit\u00e9s de n\u00e9gociation, notamment en documentant les responsabilit\u00e9s partag\u00e9es dans la trajectoire actuelle d\u2019endettement.<\/p>\n

                        La BCEAO<\/strong>, en tant qu\u2019institution r\u00e9gionale, doit \u00e9galement jouer plus pleinement son r\u00f4le de pr\u00eateur de dernier ressort afin d\u2019att\u00e9nuer les tensions de liquidit\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme.<\/p>\n

                        IV.3. Annulation et conversion de dette<\/strong><\/p>\n

                        Des m\u00e9canismes tels que les Debt-for-Development Swaps<\/em> offrent des opportunit\u00e9s de conversion de dette en investissements sociaux et climatiques, avec un double dividende budg\u00e9taire et social.<\/p>\n

                         <\/p>\n

                          \n
                        1. FINANCEMENTS INNOVANTS ET BLENDED FINANCE<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                          V.1. Finance philanthropique et fondations priv\u00e9es<\/strong><\/p>\n

                          Les financements philanthropiques permettent :<\/p>\n

                            \n
                          • un apport quasi non remboursable,<\/li>\n
                          • un cofinancement cibl\u00e9 des politiques sociales,<\/li>\n
                          • une r\u00e9duction de la pression sur le d\u00e9ficit public.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                            V.2. Finance d\u2019impact (DIB \/ SIB)<\/strong><\/p>\n

                            Les Development Impact Bonds (DIB)<\/strong> et Social Impact Bonds (SIB)<\/strong> :<\/p>\n

                              \n
                            • conditionnent la d\u00e9pense publique aux r\u00e9sultats,<\/li>\n
                            • transf\u00e8rent le risque initial vers les investisseurs,<\/li>\n
                            • am\u00e9liorent la tr\u00e9sorerie publique \u00e0 court terme.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                              V.3. Transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique et finance verte \/ bleue<\/strong><\/p>\n

                              La transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique constitue une opportunit\u00e9 strat\u00e9gique majeure<\/strong> pour le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal. La mobilisation de :<\/p>\n

                                \n
                              • fonds verts,<\/li>\n
                              • fonds bleus,<\/li>\n
                              • PPP verts,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                permettrait d\u2019orienter les investissements vers des projets non polluants \u00e0 fort rendement \u00e9conomique et environnemental, tout en am\u00e9liorant l\u2019acc\u00e8s \u00e0 des financements concessionnels (IMF, Climate Finance Reports).<\/p>\n

                                \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                V.4. Obligations diaspora<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                Les obligations diaspora permettent :<\/p>\n

                                  \n
                                • de mobiliser l\u2019\u00e9pargne nationale \u00e9largie,<\/li>\n
                                • de r\u00e9duire la d\u00e9pendance aux march\u00e9s financiers internationaux,<\/li>\n
                                • d\u2019att\u00e9nuer le risque de change.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                  V.5. Coh\u00e9rence et modularit\u00e9 de la strat\u00e9gie<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                  Approche recommand\u00e9e pour le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal :<\/p>\n

                                    \n
                                  • Dette commerciale externe<\/strong> : priorit\u00e9 \u00e0 la ren\u00e9gociation (maturit\u00e9s, coupons) ;<\/li>\n
                                  • Dette bilat\u00e9rale concessionnelle<\/strong> : pr\u00e9server l\u2019acc\u00e8s aux ressources concessionnelles ;<\/li>\n
                                  • Dette int\u00e9rieure<\/strong> : traitement prudent afin de ne pas fragiliser la sph\u00e8re bancaire r\u00e9gionale.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                    La strat\u00e9gie de gestion de la dette doit \u00eatre s\u00e9lective et combin\u00e9e \u00e0 des financements innovants.<\/p>\n

                                    V.6. Risques associ\u00e9s \u00e0 la strat\u00e9gie<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                    Les principaux risques \u00e0 anticiper :<\/p>\n

                                      \n
                                    • risque de r\u00e9putation et volatilit\u00e9 des conditions de march\u00e9 \u00e0 court terme ;<\/li>\n
                                    • risques macro\u00e9conomiques (liquidit\u00e9, change) ;<\/li>\n
                                    • risques politiques et sociaux.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                      Avec un cadre cr\u00e9dible, transparent et une communication adapt\u00e9e, ces risques peuvent \u00eatre ma\u00eetris\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

                                       <\/p>\n

                                       <\/p>\n

                                        \n
                                      1. RECOMMANDATIONS STRAT\u00c9GIQUES INT\u00c9GR\u00c9ES<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
                                          \n
                                        1. Inscrire la r\u00e9duction progressive du d\u00e9ficit primaire au c\u0153ur de la strat\u00e9gie nationale.<\/li>\n
                                        2. Cr\u00e9er une unit\u00e9 \u00ab Blended Finance & Innovation \u00bb dans le minist\u00e8re des Finances.<\/li>\n
                                        3. Engager une ren\u00e9gociation cibl\u00e9e et proactive de la dette ext\u00e9rieure.<\/li>\n
                                        4. Renforcer la capacit\u00e9 de n\u00e9gociation avec le FMI, la BCEAO et les cr\u00e9anciers bilat\u00e9raux.<\/li>\n
                                        5. Prioriser les financements innovants n\u2019alourdissant pas le d\u00e9ficit.<\/li>\n
                                        6. Faire de la transition \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique un pilier central du Blended Finance.<\/li>\n
                                        7. Renforcer la gouvernance budg\u00e9taire et la transparence des donn\u00e9es publiques.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                          \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

                                          CONCLUSION <\/strong><\/p>\n

                                          La soutenabilit\u00e9 des finances publiques s\u00e9n\u00e9galaises repose sur trois piliers indissociables :<\/p>\n

                                            \n
                                          1. la ma\u00eetrise du d\u00e9ficit public,<\/li>\n
                                          2. la transformation qualitative de la dette,<\/li>\n
                                          3. la mobilisation de financements innovants et responsables.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                                            Une restructuration s\u00e9lective, adoss\u00e9e \u00e0 une strat\u00e9gie de n\u00e9gociation renforc\u00e9e et \u00e0 des instruments financiers innovants, peut devenir un levier strat\u00e9gique de stabilit\u00e9 macro\u00e9conomique et de souverainet\u00e9 budg\u00e9taire<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

                                            \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                            BIBLIOGRAPHIE S\u00c9LECTIVE<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                            Sources institutionnelles<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                              \n
                                            • FMI (IMF)<\/strong> \u2013 IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Senegal<\/em>, 2025.<\/li>\n
                                            • Cour des comptes du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal<\/strong> \u2013 Audit des finances publiques 2019\u20132024<\/em>.<\/li>\n
                                            • Direction g\u00e9n\u00e9rale du Tr\u00e9sor (France)<\/strong> \u2013 Situation \u00e9conomique et financi\u00e8re du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal<\/em>, d\u00e9cembre 2024.<\/li>\n
                                            • CountryEconomy<\/strong> \u2013 Senegal National Debt 2024<\/em> ; S\u00e9n\u00e9gal \u2013 D\u00e9ficit public 2024<\/em>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

                                              Articles et analyses<\/strong><\/p>\n

                                                \n
                                              • Reuters<\/strong> \u2013 S&P cuts Senegal rating to \u201cCCC+\u201d as debt strains deepen<\/em>, novembre 2025.<\/li>\n
                                              • Le Monde<\/strong>, AllAfrica<\/strong> \u2013 Enqu\u00eates sur le surendettement et la gouvernance budg\u00e9taire au S\u00e9n\u00e9gal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                                                \u00a0 Par\u00a0: Dr. Cheikhna Hamallah NDIAYE, PhD Lead \u00c9conomiste \u2013 Expert en finances publiques, commande publique, dette souveraine et financement du d\u00e9veloppement   CONTEXTE MACRO-BUDG\u00c9TAIRE…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":8823,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8822","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-contribution","wpcat-16-id"],"yoast_head":"\nGestion int\u00e9gr\u00e9e de la dette publique, du d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire et options avanc\u00e9es de ren\u00e9gociation et de restructuration de l\u2019\u00c9tat du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=8822\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gestion int\u00e9gr\u00e9e de la dette publique, du d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire et options avanc\u00e9es de ren\u00e9gociation et de restructuration de l\u2019\u00c9tat du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal - 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