{"id":8736,"date":"2026-01-12T12:57:07","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T12:57:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=8736"},"modified":"2026-01-12T12:57:52","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T12:57:52","slug":"dette-du-senegal-le-cout-des-interets-etouffe-le-budget-et-impose-une-restructuration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=8736","title":{"rendered":"DETTE DU S\u00c9N\u00c9GAL : LE CO\u00dbT DES INT\u00c9R\u00caTS \u00c9TOUFFE LE BUDGET ET IMPOSE UNE RESTRUCTURATION"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par: Pr Amath Ndiaye, \u00e9conomiste<\/strong><\/p>\n

Malgr\u00e9 une am\u00e9lioration des recettes et un effort budg\u00e9taire r\u00e9el, les finances publiques s\u00e9n\u00e9galaises restent sous forte pression. La hausse rapide du co\u00fbt de la dette neutralise les ajustements r\u00e9alis\u00e9s et r\u00e9duit l\u2019espace d\u00e9di\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019investissement public et aux autres d\u00e9penses publiques essentielles.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Une dynamique budg\u00e9taire d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibr\u00e9e malgr\u00e9 l\u2019effort fiscal<\/strong><\/p>\n

Entre 2024 et 2025, le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal a consenti un effort r\u00e9el de mobilisation des ressources internes. Les recettes fiscales sont pass\u00e9es de 3 620 milliards \u00e0 4 099,6 milliards de FCFA, soit une augmentation de pr\u00e8s de 480 milliards de FCFA (+13,3 %). Cet accroissement aurait pu constituer un levier important pour le redressement des finances publiques.<\/p>\n

Mais cette am\u00e9lioration a \u00e9t\u00e9 largement neutralis\u00e9e par l\u2019\u00e9volution de la charge de la dette. Sur la m\u00eame p\u00e9riode, les int\u00e9r\u00eats de la dette ont augment\u00e9 de 28 %, passant de 824,2 milliards \u00e0 1 057 milliards de FCFA. Autrement dit, les int\u00e9r\u00eats progressent plus de deux fois plus vite que les recettes fiscales, modifiant profond\u00e9ment l\u2019\u00e9quation budg\u00e9taire.<\/p>\n

La cons\u00e9quence est imm\u00e9diate : la part des int\u00e9r\u00eats dans les recettes fiscales passe de 22,8% \u00a0\u00e0 25,8 %, pla\u00e7ant le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal dans la zone de stress budg\u00e9taire \u00e9lev\u00e9 selon les seuils FMI\u2013Banque mondiale.<\/p>\n

Des arbitrages budg\u00e9taires de plus en plus d\u00e9favorables au d\u00e9veloppement<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le niveau atteint par les int\u00e9r\u00eats de la dette constitue aujourd\u2019hui un signal d\u2019alerte majeur. En 2025, les int\u00e9r\u00eats \u00e0 eux seuls d\u00e9passent le budget de l\u2019\u00c9ducation nationale, et sont sup\u00e9rieurs aux budgets cumul\u00e9s de l\u2019Agriculture, de la Sant\u00e9 et de l\u2019Enseignement sup\u00e9rieur.<\/p>\n

Ce basculement est r\u00e9v\u00e9lateur d\u2019un changement de r\u00e9gime budg\u00e9taire : la dette n\u2019est plus un simple instrument de financement, elle devient un facteur actif d\u2019\u00e9viction des d\u00e9penses productives et sociales.<\/p>\n

Dans ce contexte, l\u2019ajustement budg\u00e9taire s\u2019op\u00e8re principalement par la compression de l\u2019investissement public, pourtant indispensable \u00e0 la croissance potentielle, \u00e0 la cr\u00e9ation d\u2019emplois et \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9largissement futur de l\u2019assiette fiscale.<\/p>\n

Les limites structurelles du reprofilage dans un contexte de stress financier<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le reprofilage de la dette est g\u00e9n\u00e9ralement pr\u00e9sent\u00e9 comme une solution interm\u00e9diaire de gestion. Il n\u2019est toutefois r\u00e9ellement pertinent que dans un environnement favorable, marqu\u00e9 par une baisse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat et par une cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re suffisante permettant \u00e0 l\u2019\u00c9tat de se refinancer \u00e0 des conditions avantageuses.<\/p>\n

Or, le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal se trouve aujourd\u2019hui dans une situation radicalement diff\u00e9rente. Le pays fait face \u00e0 une d\u00e9gradation significative de sa notation souveraine, \u00e0 une hausse marqu\u00e9e de la prime de risque exig\u00e9e par les investisseurs, ainsi qu\u2019\u00e0 des eurobonds fortement d\u00e9pr\u00e9ci\u00e9s, qui se n\u00e9gocient bien en dessous de leur valeur nominale. Ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments traduisent un contexte de stress financier, caract\u00e9ris\u00e9 par des co\u00fbts de refinancement particuli\u00e8rement \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Cette contrainte est appel\u00e9e \u00e0 s\u2019accentuer. Selon l\u2019\u00e9ch\u00e9ancier officiel de paiement de la dette, le service total de la dette (int\u00e9r\u00eats et remboursement du principal) devrait continuer de cro\u00eetre et atteindre un pic en 2027. D\u00e8s 2026, d\u2019apr\u00e8s les pr\u00e9visions de la loi de finances, les int\u00e9r\u00eats de la dette devraient s\u2019\u00e9lever \u00e0 1 190 milliards de FCFA, contre 1 057 milliards en 2025. Sans inflexion majeure de la strat\u00e9gie actuelle, la pression budg\u00e9taire va donc se renforcer, r\u00e9duisant encore l\u2019espace disponible pour les politiques publiques prioritaires.<\/p>\n

Dans un tel environnement, tout reprofilage s\u2019op\u00e9rerait n\u00e9cessairement \u00e0 des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s, ce qui aurait pour effet d\u2019augmenter le co\u00fbt global de la dette.<\/p>\n

Autrement dit, reprofiler une dette d\u00e9j\u00e0 ch\u00e8re dans un contexte de taux \u00e9lev\u00e9s revient \u00e0 diff\u00e9rer le probl\u00e8me en l\u2019aggravant, tout en r\u00e9duisant davantage les marges de man\u0153uvre budg\u00e9taires de l\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/p>\n

La restructuration, une option de responsabilit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique<\/strong><\/p>\n

Au regard de ces contraintes, la restructuration ordonn\u00e9e de la dette souveraine appara\u00eet comme la solution la plus efficace et la plus coh\u00e9rente. Contrairement au simple reprofilage ou \u00e0 la gestion active, elle permet une r\u00e9duction des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat, un allongement significatif des maturit\u00e9s, l\u2019introduction de p\u00e9riodes de gr\u00e2ce et, si n\u00e9cessaire, une d\u00e9cote (haircut) sur la valeur nominale de la dette.<\/p>\n

Pour \u00eatre cr\u00e9dible et efficace, cette restructuration doit imp\u00e9rativement s\u2019inscrire dans un cadre global associant un programme avec le FMI, une coordination \u00e9troite avec la BCEAO afin de pr\u00e9server la stabilit\u00e9 du syst\u00e8me bancaire et du march\u00e9 r\u00e9gional, ainsi qu\u2019un plan rigoureux de redressement budg\u00e9taire fond\u00e9 sur la r\u00e9duction du train de vie de l\u2019\u00c9tat, la ma\u00eetrise des d\u00e9penses courantes et la protection de l\u2019investissement productif.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Pr Amath Ndiaye <\/strong><\/p>\n

FASEG-UCAD <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par: Pr Amath Ndiaye, \u00e9conomiste Malgr\u00e9 une am\u00e9lioration des recettes et un effort budg\u00e9taire r\u00e9el, les finances publiques s\u00e9n\u00e9galaises restent sous forte pression. La hausse…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-analyse","wpcat-23-id","wpcat-15-id"],"yoast_head":"\nDETTE DU S\u00c9N\u00c9GAL : LE CO\u00dbT DES INT\u00c9R\u00caTS \u00c9TOUFFE LE BUDGET ET IMPOSE UNE RESTRUCTURATION - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=8736\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"DETTE DU S\u00c9N\u00c9GAL : LE CO\u00dbT DES INT\u00c9R\u00caTS \u00c9TOUFFE LE BUDGET ET IMPOSE UNE RESTRUCTURATION - challenges economiques\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Par: Pr Amath Ndiaye, \u00e9conomiste Malgr\u00e9 une am\u00e9lioration des recettes et un effort budg\u00e9taire r\u00e9el, les finances publiques s\u00e9n\u00e9galaises restent sous forte pression. 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