{"id":8282,"date":"2025-07-22T11:09:56","date_gmt":"2025-07-22T11:09:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=8282"},"modified":"2025-07-22T11:10:40","modified_gmt":"2025-07-22T11:10:40","slug":"senegal-pourquoi-le-rebasing-du-pib-est-une-mise-a-jour-cruciale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=8282","title":{"rendered":"SENEGAL : POURQUOI LE REBASING DU PIB EST UNE MISE A JOUR CRUCIALE"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par:<\/strong> Pr Amath NDIAYE <\/strong>FASEG-UCAD<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal s\u2019appr\u00eate \u00e0 r\u00e9viser son produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) en changeant l\u2019ann\u00e9e de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence utilis\u00e9e dans ses comptes nationaux. Ce processus de \u00ab rebasing \u00bb, le premier depuis 2014, intervient dans un contexte \u00e9conomique en mutation. Il vise \u00e0 mieux refl\u00e9ter les richesses r\u00e9ellement cr\u00e9\u00e9es dans le pays.<\/p>\n

Qu\u2019est-ce que le rebasing du PIB ? <\/strong><\/p>\n

Le rebasing consiste \u00e0 changer l\u2019ann\u00e9e de base utilis\u00e9e pour calculer le PIB r\u00e9el, afin d\u2019actualiser la structure de l\u2019\u00e9conomie. Il permet de r\u00e9\u00e9valuer la valeur du PIB, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire la richesse effectivement produite \u00e0 l\u2019int\u00e9rieur du pays, en int\u00e9grant les changements intervenus depuis la derni\u00e8re base (2014). Cette op\u00e9ration technique ne refl\u00e8te pas une croissance effective, mais une am\u00e9lioration de la m\u00e9thode de calcul et de la couverture statistique.<\/p>\n

En principe, les taux de croissance annuels ant\u00e9rieurs ne changent pas, mais les niveaux absolus de PIB peuvent fortement augmenter du fait de la meilleure prise en compte de certains secteurs mal mesur\u00e9s ou absents des anciennes statistiques.<\/p>\n

Une nouvelle structure de l\u2019\u00e9conomie <\/strong><\/p>\n

Le rebasing actualisera la structure du PIB s\u00e9n\u00e9galais pour mieux refl\u00e9ter les transformations \u00e9conomiques de la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie. Plusieurs secteurs verront leur poids r\u00e9\u00e9valu\u00e9 :<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

– le secteur informel, longtemps sous-estim\u00e9, sera mieux int\u00e9gr\u00e9.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

– les technologies num\u00e9riques, les t\u00e9l\u00e9communications, le mobile-banking et l\u2019e-commerce seront davantage valoris\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

– Les secteurs du b\u00e2timent, des transports, de l\u2019immobilier et du tourisme gagneront en importance.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

– Les services essentiels comme la sant\u00e9, l\u2019\u00e9ducation et la finance seront aussi mieux couverts.<\/p>\n

A noter toutefois : l\u2019ann\u00e9e de base retenue est 2021. Cela signifie que l\u2019exploitation commerciale du p\u00e9trole et du gaz, qui n\u2019avait pas encore d\u00e9marr\u00e9 \u00e0 cette date, ne sera pas prise en compte dans la structure de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence du PIB. Les effets \u00e9conomiques de cette activit\u00e9 strat\u00e9gique ne seront visibles que dans les \u00e9volutions annuelles post\u00e9rieures, puis pleinement int\u00e9gr\u00e9s dans un prochain rebasing, probablement apr\u00e8s 2025.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00a0Des enjeux importants, mais une dette toujours pr\u00e9occupante <\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Le rebasing aura plusieurs impacts \u00e9conomiques et politiques :<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

– le ratio dette\/PIB va automatiquement baisser, car le PIB r\u00e9\u00e9valu\u00e9 sera plus \u00e9lev\u00e9. Cela pourrait am\u00e9liorer temporairement l\u2019image du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal aupr\u00e8s des partenaires et agences de notation.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

– mais cette \u00e9volution ne modifie en rien la charge r\u00e9elle de la dette : le service de la dette accapare encore 26 % des recettes fiscales, un niveau qui reste tr\u00e8s pr\u00e9occupant et qui p\u00e8se lourdement sur les marges budg\u00e9taires.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

– le rebasing n\u2019\u00e9carte donc pas la n\u00e9cessit\u00e9 urgente de mesures de redressement budg\u00e9taire, notamment pour am\u00e9liorer la mobilisation des ressources internes, rationaliser les d\u00e9penses et contenir le d\u00e9ficit.<\/p>\n

Au-del\u00e0 de l\u2019effet statistique, le rebasing doit \u00eatre l\u2019occasion de renforcer la transparence, la rigueur et la r\u00e9gularit\u00e9 des statistiques \u00e9conomiques. Il constitue aussi un levier pour repenser les priorit\u00e9s budg\u00e9taires et \u00e9conomiques du pays sur des bases plus r\u00e9alistes.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par: Pr Amath NDIAYE FASEG-UCAD Le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal s\u2019appr\u00eate \u00e0 r\u00e9viser son produit int\u00e9rieur brut (PIB) en changeant l\u2019ann\u00e9e de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence utilis\u00e9e dans ses comptes nationaux….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8283,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualite-economique","category-contribution","wpcat-8-id","wpcat-16-id"],"yoast_head":"\nSENEGAL : POURQUOI LE REBASING DU PIB EST UNE MISE A JOUR CRUCIALE - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=8282\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"SENEGAL : POURQUOI LE REBASING DU PIB EST UNE MISE A JOUR CRUCIALE - 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