{"id":6115,"date":"2024-03-13T14:00:15","date_gmt":"2024-03-13T14:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=6115"},"modified":"2024-03-13T13:02:04","modified_gmt":"2024-03-13T13:02:04","slug":"lhorizon-de-la-dette-seclaircit-pour-la-cote-divoire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=6115","title":{"rendered":"L\u2019horizon de la dette s\u2019\u00e9claircit pour la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>L\u2019\u00e9conomie ivoirienne se diversifie et renforce sa r\u00e9sistance aux chocs externes, y compris aux tensions politiques, salue Moody\u2019s qui souligne les efforts budg\u00e9taires de l\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Moody\u2019s a relev\u00e9 ses notes \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de la dette de la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, \u00e0 \u00ab\u00a0<em>Ba3<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb et \u00ab\u00a0<em>Ba2<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb pour les \u00e9missions en francs CFA et en devises. Voil\u00e0 qui place le pays dans la cat\u00e9gorie \u00ab\u00a0<em>moyenne inf\u00e9rieure<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb de la grille de notations de l\u2019agence am\u00e9ricaine, \u00e0 un cran de la cat\u00e9gorie \u00ab\u00a0<em>moyenne sup\u00e9rieure<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb qui d\u00e9bute \u00e0 \u00ab\u00a0<em>Ba1<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb. Fort logiquement, la perspective favorable de la note passe \u00e0 \u00ab\u00a0<em>stable<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>Ce rel\u00e8vement refl\u00e8te \u00ab\u00a0<em>la r\u00e9silience \u00e9conomique accrue de la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, soutenue par une diversification \u00e9conomique croissante, des niveaux de revenus en hausse \u00e0 partir d\u2019un niveau bas et des perspectives \u00e9conomiques robustes, le tout stimul\u00e9 par l\u2019augmentation des investissements du secteur priv\u00e9 et un historique d\u2019am\u00e9liorations r\u00e9guli\u00e8res de la gouvernance<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb, r\u00e9sume la note de Moody\u2019s communiqu\u00e9 \u00e0 ses clients le 1<sup>er<\/sup> mars 2024.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Seul motif d\u2019inqui\u00e9tudes\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0Les niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s de pauvret\u00e9 et l\u2019in\u00e9galit\u00e9 croissante des revenus pourraient menacer la stabilit\u00e9 politique \u00e0 l\u2019avenir, ind\u00e9pendamment des taux de croissance \u00e9lev\u00e9s du pays.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>En outre, les efforts d\u2019assainissement budg\u00e9taire d\u00e9ploy\u00e9s dans le cadre du programme actuel du FMI et \u00ab\u00a0<em>la gestion efficace<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb du profil de la dette publique se traduiront par \u00ab\u00a0<em>des am\u00e9liorations durables des indicateurs budg\u00e9taires du gouvernement et une r\u00e9duction des risques de liquidit\u00e9<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p>La perspective stable refl\u00e8te des risques \u00e9quilibr\u00e9s \u00e0 moyen terme. Moody\u2019s s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la performance \u00e9conomique de la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire soit globalement \u00ab\u00a0<em>r\u00e9sistante<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb aux chocs \u00e9manant de la crise politique en Afrique de l\u2019Ouest, tandis que la politique int\u00e9rieure pourrait s\u2019affaiblir. Malgr\u00e9 la croissance rapide de son \u00e9conomie, les risques d\u2019\u00e9mergence de d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres importants restent faibles, en partie gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la stabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re d\u00e9coulant de la participation \u00e0 l\u2019UEMOA (Union \u00e9conomique et mon\u00e9taire ouest-africaine) et au vaste programme du FMI.<\/p>\n<p>L\u2019engagement en faveur de l\u2019assainissement budg\u00e9taire signifie que la r\u00e9duction progressive du fardeau de la dette \u2013\u00a050 % du PIB d\u2019ici \u00e0 2030\u00a0\u2013 et l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des indicateurs budg\u00e9taires du gouvernement qui en d\u00e9coule \u00ab\u00a0<em>ne risquent pas d\u2019\u00eatre d\u00e9r\u00e9gl\u00e9s\u00a0<\/em>\u00bb.<\/p>\n<p><strong>R\u00e9silience et diversification<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Les analystes de Moody\u2019s observent que le PIB r\u00e9el a suivi une trajectoire ascendante rapide, augmentant \u00e0 un taux moyen de 7,1 % entre 2012 et 2023, et atteignant un montant estim\u00e9 \u00e0 79 milliards de dollars en 2023. Moody\u2019s s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que cette tendance se poursuive, avec une croissance moyenne du PIB r\u00e9el de 7 % jusqu\u2019en 2026, une pr\u00e9vision soutenue par la mise en \u0153uvre du Plan de d\u00e9veloppement national 2021-2025. Parall\u00e8lement, les niveaux de revenus de la nation ont augment\u00e9 rapidement \u00e0 partir de faibles niveaux, renfor\u00e7ant ainsi sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 g\u00e9rer les chocs \u00e9conomiques ou fiscaux. Moody\u2019s pr\u00e9voit que le PIB par habitant d\u00e9passera 10\u00a0000\u00a0$ d\u2019ici \u00e0 2030, contre 6\u00a0485\u00a0$ en 2022.<\/p>\n<p>L\u2019augmentation des investissements du secteur priv\u00e9, en particulier dans les secteurs de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et de l\u2019industrie manufacturi\u00e8re, soutient les perspectives de croissance, la comp\u00e9titivit\u00e9 et la diversification de l\u2019\u00e9conomie, d\u00e9taillent les analystes. Notamment, au cours de la derni\u00e8re d\u00e9cennie, la croissance de l\u2019investissement priv\u00e9 a atteint 8,6\u00a0% en moyenne. La croissance et la diversification de l\u2019\u00e9conomie devraient encore b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier de l\u2019expansion de la production d\u2019hydrocarbures, tir\u00e9e par l\u2019augmentation de la production des champs p\u00e9troliers offshore de Baleine.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-80367 alignleft lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Cote-dIvoire-football-stade-300x200.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 401px) 100vw, 401px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Cote-dIvoire-football-stade-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Cote-dIvoire-football-stade-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Cote-dIvoire-football-stade.jpg 800w\" alt=\"\" width=\"401\" height=\"267\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Cote-dIvoire-football-stade-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Cote-dIvoire-football-stade-768x513.jpg 768w, https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Cote-dIvoire-football-stade.jpg 800w\" data-src=\"https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Cote-dIvoire-football-stade-300x200.jpg\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 401px) 100vw, 401px\" \/>\u00ab\u00a0<em>En compl\u00e9ment de ces \u00e9l\u00e9ments, la solidit\u00e9 institutionnelle et la gouvernance de la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire n\u2019ont cess\u00e9 de s\u2019am\u00e9liorer depuis 2011, comme le montrent les indicateurs mondiaux de gouvernance, renfor\u00e7ant ainsi les performances \u00e9conomiques globales du pays et sa capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 g\u00e9rer efficacement les chocs.<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n<p>Le deuxi\u00e8me moteur de ce rel\u00e8vement est l\u2019effort d\u2019assainissement budg\u00e9taire du gouvernement, mis en \u00e9vidence par la r\u00e9duction du d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire de 6,8 % du PIB en 2022 \u00e0 5,3 % en 2023, et qui devrait continuer \u00e0 s\u2019am\u00e9liorer. Cette am\u00e9lioration est principalement due \u00e0 une augmentation des recettes fiscales totales et \u00e0 la mise en \u0153uvre de r\u00e9formes fiscales.<\/p>\n<p>La mise en \u0153uvre de nouvelles mesures fiscales l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, dans le cadre du nouveau programme du FMI, renforce la probabilit\u00e9 que le gouvernement r\u00e9ussisse dans ses efforts pour am\u00e9liorer la mobilisation des recettes. Moody\u2019s s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que cette strat\u00e9gie se traduise par une augmentation des recettes fiscales globales d\u2019au moins 0,5 % du PIB chaque ann\u00e9e au cours des deux prochaines ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Un risque politique mod\u00e9r\u00e9<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Compte tenu de ces facteurs, Moody\u2019s s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que le d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire poursuive sa contraction, diminuant \u00e0 4 % du PIB en 2024 et s\u2019alignant sur le seuil de 3 % de l\u2019UEMOA d\u2019ici 2025. L\u2019assainissement budg\u00e9taire att\u00e9nue aussi progressivement le risque de liquidit\u00e9 en r\u00e9duisant les besoins de financement. D\u2019ailleurs, l\u2019\u00c9tat adopte une \u00ab\u00a0strat\u00e9gie proactive\u00a0\u00bb en la mati\u00e8re, comme l\u2019illustr\u00e9 la r\u00e9cente \u00e9mission d\u2019euro-obligations, dont une partie a \u00e9t\u00e9 affect\u00e9e au r\u00e8glement de dettes ext\u00e9rieures et de pr\u00eats commerciaux existants, ce qui a permis d\u2019am\u00e9liorer encore le profil de maturit\u00e9 de la dette.<\/p>\n<p>De plus, Moody\u2019s s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que les tensions politiques int\u00e9rieures continuent \u00e0 s\u2019att\u00e9nuer dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir, m\u00eame si les \u00e9lections de 2025 peuvent s\u2019accompagner de tensions nouvelles. Sentiment confirm\u00e9 par les \u00e9lections de septembre 2023, auxquelles tous les partis politiques ont particip\u00e9.\u00a0 \u00ab\u00a0<em>Ceci est important compte tenu de la faiblesse relative du cadre institutionnel et de gouvernance du pays, qui reste une contrainte \u00e0 long terme pour le profil de cr\u00e9dit de la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire, malgr\u00e9 les am\u00e9liorations constantes apport\u00e9es au fil des ans\u00a0<\/em>\u00bb, nuance Moody\u2019s.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright  wp-image-76300 lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Electrification-Cote-dIvoire-300x188.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 346px) 100vw, 346px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Electrification-Cote-dIvoire-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Electrification-Cote-dIvoire-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Electrification-Cote-dIvoire.jpg 800w\" alt=\"\" width=\"346\" height=\"217\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Electrification-Cote-dIvoire-300x188.jpg 300w, https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Electrification-Cote-dIvoire-768x480.jpg 768w, https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Electrification-Cote-dIvoire.jpg 800w\" data-src=\"https:\/\/magazinedelafrique.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/Electrification-Cote-dIvoire-300x188.jpg\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 346px) 100vw, 346px\" \/>Qui reconna\u00eet\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0<em>Les niveaux \u00e9lev\u00e9s de pauvret\u00e9 et l\u2019in\u00e9galit\u00e9 croissante des revenus pourraient menacer la stabilit\u00e9 politique \u00e0 l\u2019avenir, ind\u00e9pendamment des taux de croissance \u00e9lev\u00e9s du pays.\u00a0<\/em>\u00bb Alors que les autorit\u00e9s continuent de donner la priorit\u00e9 aux efforts visant \u00e0 rendre la croissance \u00e9conomique plus inclusive et que l\u2019acc\u00e8s aux services de base s\u2019est am\u00e9lior\u00e9, l\u2019exposition aux risques sociaux reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p>Enfin, la C\u00f4te d\u2019Ivoire reste \u00ab\u00a0<em>mod\u00e9r\u00e9ment expos\u00e9e<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb aux risques environnementaux li\u00e9s aux s\u00e9cheresses, \u00e0 la d\u00e9forestation et \u00e0 la d\u00e9gradation des sols, compte tenu de l\u2019importance du secteur agricole qui fournit des revenus aux deux tiers de la population et repr\u00e9sente la plus grande part des recettes d\u2019exportation.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Le Magazine de l&rsquo;Afrique<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>L\u2019\u00e9conomie ivoirienne se diversifie et renforce sa r\u00e9sistance aux chocs externes, y compris aux tensions politiques, salue Moody\u2019s qui souligne les efforts budg\u00e9taires de l\u2019\u00c9tat&#8230;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5252,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6115","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualite-economique","category-infos-eco","wpcat-8-id","wpcat-10-id"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - 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