{"id":6077,"date":"2024-03-01T21:49:42","date_gmt":"2024-03-01T21:49:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=6077"},"modified":"2024-03-01T21:50:09","modified_gmt":"2024-03-01T21:50:09","slug":"sp-maintient-ses-perspectives-a-legard-du-senegal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=6077","title":{"rendered":"S&P maintient ses perspectives \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal"},"content":{"rendered":"

En d\u00e9pit d\u2019un climat politique \u00ab\u00a0volatil\u00a0\u00bb, les perspectives \u00e9conomiques du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal restent intactes, juge l\u2019agence am\u00e9ricaine S&P Global Ratings, sauf si les \u00e9lections sont programm\u00e9es bien apr\u00e8s le 2 avril.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sans \u00eatre tout \u00e0 fait insensibles aux incertitudes politiques actuelles, les analystes de S&P Ratings ont maintenu leur notation sur la dette du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal (\u00ab\u00a0B+\/B\u00a0\u00bb) avec une perspective \u00ab\u00a0stable\u00a0<\/em>\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Cette derni\u00e8re se justifie par l\u2019\u00ab\u00a0\u00e9quilibre entre les solides perspectives de croissance et budg\u00e9taires \u00e0 moyen terme du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal et les retomb\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques et budg\u00e9taires potentielles en cas d\u2019impasse politique prolong\u00e9e<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

S&P consid\u00e8re que la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rera cette ann\u00e9e, gr\u00e2ce au d\u00e9marrage attendu de la production de p\u00e9trole et de gaz vers le milieu de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, pour atteindre une moyenne de 9 % par an sur la p\u00e9riode 2024-2025, puis 5% en 2026 et 2027.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Bien s\u00fbr, l\u2019agence pourrait revoir d\u00e9favorablement sa position si \u00ab\u00a0des tensions politiques persistantes entravaient de mani\u00e8re significative la capacit\u00e9 des autorit\u00e9s \u00e0 mettre en \u0153uvre des r\u00e9formes, limitaient l\u2019acc\u00e8s au financement et pesaient durablement sur l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique et les r\u00e9sultats budg\u00e9taires<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, rien n\u2019interdit d\u2019anticiper une am\u00e9lioration rapide des indicateurs budg\u00e9taires et ext\u00e9rieurs, et un apaisement rapide des tensions politiques.<\/p>\n

Entre autres avanc\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques attendues l\u2019\u00e9largissement de l\u2019assiette fiscale par le gouvernement pourrait se traduire par une baisse plus significative des besoins d\u2019emprunt nets du gouvernement et de la dette publique par rapport au PIB, soutenue par une forte croissance \u00e9conomique \u00e0 moyen terme.<\/p>\n

En vertu de la loi constitutionnelle actuelle, rappelle S&P, le mandat pr\u00e9sidentiel en cours se termine le 2 avril 2024. Si les \u00e9lections devaient avoir lieu apr\u00e8s cette date, un gouvernement int\u00e9rimaire dirig\u00e9 par le pr\u00e9sident de l\u2019Assembl\u00e9e nationale prendrait le relais. \u00ab\u00a0Bien que ce retard refl\u00e8te en partie les consid\u00e9rations politiques du parti au pouvoir et les d\u00e9saccords sur l\u2019\u00e9ligibilit\u00e9 des candidats de l\u2019opposition \u00e0 participer au processus politique, la d\u00e9cision du Conseil constitutionnel du 15 f\u00e9vrier est la preuve que les m\u00e9canismes de contr\u00f4le et d\u2019\u00e9quilibre restent relativement forts dans le pays\u00a0<\/em>\u00bb, observent les analystes.<\/p>\n

Qui rappelle que le S\u00e9n\u00e9gal a une longue histoire de transitions d\u00e9mocratiques pacifiques et d\u2019absence de conflits civils. Et que les trois branches du gouvernement (ex\u00e9cutif, l\u00e9gislatif et judiciaire) \u00ab\u00a0continuent de fonctionner de mani\u00e8re relativement ind\u00e9pendante<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb. Le parlement est paritaire et les m\u00e9dias sont relativement libres. Bref, \u00ab\u00a0la situation reste fluide\u00a0<\/em>\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Une \u00e9conomie r\u00e9siliente<\/strong><\/p>\n

Toutefois, apr\u00e8s les tensions, puis le relatif retour au calme, \u00ab\u00a0la situation reste volatile<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb, pr\u00e9viennent les analystes. \u00ab\u00a0Si les \u00e9lections sont report\u00e9es bien au-del\u00e0 de la date de transition du 2 avril, les manifestations pourraient se poursuivre, voire s\u2019intensifier, ce qui p\u00e8serait sur la croissance et les perspectives budg\u00e9taires du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal.<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

En effet, une p\u00e9riode prolong\u00e9e de troubles sociaux graves et d\u2019incertitude politique pourrait entraver l\u2019ex\u00e9cution du Plan S\u00e9n\u00e9gal \u00e9mergent, qui vise \u00e0 soutenir l\u2019investissement, la croissance du secteur priv\u00e9 et l\u2019assainissement des finances publiques, notamment en augmentant les recettes fiscales et autres recettes de l\u2019\u00c9tat.<\/p>\n

Des tensions politiques persistantes pourraient \u00e9galement r\u00e9duire ou retarder les flux touristiques, les investissements internationaux et le commerce int\u00e9rieur, pesant ainsi sur la croissance \u2013 S&P est d\u2019ailleurs plus optimiste que ses cons\u0153urs au sujet de la croissance.<\/p>\n

En d\u00e9pit des risques, les experts confirment leurs pr\u00e9visions macro\u00e9conomiques, y compris celle relative au d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire, qui diminuera progressivement pour atteindre 3 % du PIB en 2026, contre 5 % du PIB en 2023.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0\u00c0 court terme, l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique restera r\u00e9siliente, gr\u00e2ce au d\u00e9marrage de la production d\u2019hydrocarbures.<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb S&P consid\u00e8re donc que la croissance du PIB r\u00e9el s\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9rera cette ann\u00e9e, gr\u00e2ce au d\u00e9marrage attendu de la production de p\u00e9trole et de gaz vers le milieu de l\u2019ann\u00e9e, pour atteindre une moyenne de 9 % par an sur la p\u00e9riode 2024-2025, puis 5% en 2026 et 2027. Le champ de Grand Tortue, un projet commun avec la Mauritanie, contient 100 billions de pieds cubes de r\u00e9serves confirm\u00e9es de gaz naturel. La production initiale du projet, d\u2019environ 2 millions de tonnes m\u00e9triques (mt) par an \u00e0 partir de 2024, atteindra 10 millions de mt par an une fois que toutes les phases seront achev\u00e9es. Le seul champ p\u00e9trolier de Sangomar devrait produire plus de 32 millions de barils en 2025. De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, le secteur minier devrait enregistrer de bonnes performances gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l\u2019entr\u00e9e en service de nouvelles mines.<\/p>\n

Au plan financier, les relations \u00e9troites avec les bailleurs de fonds continuent \u00e0 fournir un ancrage politique solide, juge S&P qui rappelle qu\u2019en d\u00e9cembre 2023, le FMI a approuv\u00e9 la premi\u00e8re revue des programmes du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal, provoquant le d\u00e9caissement imm\u00e9diat d\u2019environ 280 millions de dollars.<\/p>\n

Le Magazine de l’Afrique<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En d\u00e9pit d\u2019un climat politique \u00ab\u00a0volatil\u00a0\u00bb, les perspectives \u00e9conomiques du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal restent intactes, juge l\u2019agence am\u00e9ricaine S&P Global Ratings, sauf si les \u00e9lections sont programm\u00e9es…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6078,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-actualite-economique","wpcat-23-id","wpcat-8-id"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P maintient ses perspectives \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=6077\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P maintient ses perspectives \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal - 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