{"id":5436,"date":"2023-10-13T11:54:26","date_gmt":"2023-10-13T11:54:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=5436"},"modified":"2023-10-13T11:55:17","modified_gmt":"2023-10-13T11:55:17","slug":"le-fmi-entrevoit-des-eclaircies-a-lhorizon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=5436","title":{"rendered":"Le FMI entrevoit des \u00e9claircies \u00e0 l\u2019horizon"},"content":{"rendered":"

La m\u00e9t\u00e9o \u00e9conomique de l\u2019Afrique s\u2019am\u00e9liore progressivement, mais les nuages demeurent nombreux et obscurcissent les pr\u00e9visions, juge le FMI qui pronostique une meilleure croissance en 2024 et de meilleures conditions financi\u00e8res.<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0L\u2019ann\u00e9e 2023 aura \u00e9t\u00e9 difficile, mais l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique de la r\u00e9gion devrait rebondir l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine.<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb Ainsi pr\u00e9disent les augures du FMI dans les Perspectives \u00e9conomiques r\u00e9gionales publi\u00e9es ce 10 octobre 2023.<\/p>\n

On conna\u00eet les facteurs de cette \u00ab\u00a0ann\u00e9e difficile<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb, inutile d\u2019y revenir. En 2023, la croissance devrait reculer pour la deuxi\u00e8me ann\u00e9e cons\u00e9cutive, en s\u2019\u00e9tablissant \u00e0 3,3 %, contre 4,0 % l\u2019an pass\u00e9. Cependant, la croissance en Afrique subsaharienne devrait se r\u00e9tablir \u00e0 4,0 % en 2024, jugent les experts du FMI qui s\u2019interrogent donc sur l\u2019ampleur de l\u2019\u00ab\u00a0\u00e9claircie \u00e0 l\u2019horizon<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb.<\/p>\n

Le rebond de croissance en 2024 n\u2019est pas garanti\u00a0: la p\u00e9nurie de financement s\u2019estompe, mais s\u00e9vit toujours, l\u2019endettement se stabilise, mais \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9. Les \u00ab\u00a0spreads\u00a0\u00bb diminuent, mais les co\u00fbts de l\u2019emprunt demeurent \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Et qui se demande d\u2019ailleurs si le redressement \u00e9conomique de la r\u00e9gion n\u2019a pas d\u00e9j\u00e0 commenc\u00e9. Les donn\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques, toujours longues \u00e0 recueillir, montrent que l\u2019activit\u00e9 globale s\u2019est am\u00e9lior\u00e9e au cours du deuxi\u00e8me trimestre. Les coupures de courant en Afrique du Sud ont pes\u00e9 sur la croissance, mais moins que redout\u00e9\u00a0; or, l\u2019\u00e9conomie sud-africaine repr\u00e9sente 19,5 % du PIB de la r\u00e9gion.<\/p>\n

Bien s\u00fbr, la reprise \u00e9conomique de la r\u00e9gion ne d\u00e9pend pas de la seule Afrique du Sud. En effet, la croissance va augmenter pour environ les quatre cinqui\u00e8mes des pays de la r\u00e9gion, ce qui marque une diff\u00e9rence tr\u00e8s nette avec 2023. Sachant que selon les \u00e9conomistes, les pays de la r\u00e9gion dont l\u2019\u00e9conomie est plus diversifi\u00e9e conna\u00eetront la croissance la plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n

Pour autant, le tableau est loin d\u2019\u00eatre le m\u00eame partout dans la r\u00e9gion ; en particulier, le FMI s\u2019attend \u00e0 ce que la divergence persiste entre les pays riches en ressources naturelles et les pays pauvres en ressources naturelles. \u00ab\u00a0Ces deux groupes de pays conna\u00eetront une embellie l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine, mais pas au m\u00eame rythme<\/em>.\u00a0\u00bb Le recul des prix des produits de base continuera \u00e0 peser sur les exportations de la plupart des pays riches en ressources naturelles, mais dans l\u2019ensemble leur croissance va s\u2019am\u00e9liorer, en passant de 2,6 % en 2023 \u00e0 3,2 % en 2024, principalement gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la consommation priv\u00e9e et, dans certains cas, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 la (re)mise en service de projets d\u2019exploitation des hydrocarbures (Niger, S\u00e9n\u00e9gal) et au d\u00e9marrage de la production de plusieurs projets miniers (Liberia, Mali, RD Congo, Sierra Leone).<\/p>\n

\"FMI<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Pour ce qui concerne les pays pauvres en ressources naturelles, leur croissance devrait b\u00e9n\u00e9ficier \u00e0 la fois de la bonne tenue de la consommation et de l\u2019investissement, et devrait passer de 5,3 % \u00e0 un niveau \u00ab\u00a0impressionnant<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb de 5,9\u00a0%, jugent les \u00e9conomistes.<\/p>\n

Des pressions inflationnistes moindres<\/strong><\/p>\n

Parall\u00e8lement, les conditions ext\u00e9rieures s\u2019am\u00e9liorent. L\u2019environnement mondial demeure certes difficile, mais l\u2019on note un certain nombre d\u2019am\u00e9liorations\u00a0: fin de la pand\u00e9mie, vigueur inattendue de la consommation, des conditions financi\u00e8res internationales qui semblent s\u2019assouplir. \u00c0 cet \u00e9gard, l\u2019\u00e9cart de rendement entre les obligations souveraines des pays africains et celles des pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s semblent se r\u00e9duire, ce qui tend \u00e0 am\u00e9liorer les conditions de financement.<\/p>\n

Enfin, les cha\u00eenes d\u2019approvisionnement mondiales se sont r\u00e9tablies, et les cours des denr\u00e9es alimentaires et de l\u2019\u00e9nergie ont chut\u00e9. Les prix mondiaux des denr\u00e9es alimentaires ont baiss\u00e9 de plus de 20 % au cours des 18 derniers mois. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 que les d\u00e9penses alimentaires repr\u00e9sentent presque 40 % du panier de consommation des habitants d\u2019Afrique subsaharienne,\u00a0\u00ab\u00a0il s\u2019agit d\u2019une bonne nouvelle pour une r\u00e9gion en proie \u00e0 une grave crise du co\u00fbt de la vie et o\u00f9 la pauvret\u00e9 a d\u00e9j\u00e0 pris des proportions inqui\u00e9tantes\u00a0<\/em>\u00bb.<\/p>\n

De plus, l\u2019inflation semble s\u2019assagir en Afrique subsaharienne, m\u00eame si l\u00e0 encore, tous les pays ne sont pas \u00e0 la m\u00eame enseigne. Les pays en r\u00e9gime de change flexible pr\u00e9sentent des taux d\u2019inflation plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s que les pays en r\u00e9gime de change interm\u00e9diaire.<\/p>\n

D\u2019apr\u00e8s les experts, l\u2019inflation ne devrait augmenter au cours de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2024 que dans cinq pays : l\u2019Angola, le Burkina Faso, la Guin\u00e9e \u00e9quatoriale, le Niger, les Seychelles.<\/p>\n

Enfin, les finances publiques des pays de la r\u00e9gion se r\u00e9tablissent progressivement et les niveaux d\u2019endettement se sont largement stabilis\u00e9s autour de 60 % \u00e0 partir de 2021, et devraient amorcer un l\u00e9ger repli \u00e0 partir de 2024, mettant ainsi fin \u00e0 une tendance haussi\u00e8re qui dure depuis une d\u00e9cennie.<\/p>\n

Prime aux \u00e9conomies diversifi\u00e9es<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"Alors, bien s\u00fbr, le FMI nuance\u00a0: \u00ab\u00a0Il reste tout de m\u00eame de gros nuages \u00e0 l\u2019horizon\u2026<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb<\/p>\n

Le rebond de croissance en 2024 n\u2019est pas garanti\u00a0: la p\u00e9nurie de financement s\u2019estompe, mais s\u00e9vit toujours, l\u2019endettement se stabilise, mais \u00e0 un niveau \u00e9lev\u00e9. Les \u00ab\u00a0spreads\u00a0\u00bb diminuent, mais les co\u00fbts de l\u2019emprunt demeurent \u00e9lev\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

L\u2019inflation reste pr\u00e9occupante, pr\u00e9vient le FMI qui redoute que dans les pays o\u00f9 elle persiste, les autorit\u00e9s ne doivent resserrer encore plus leur politique mon\u00e9taire, de peur d\u2019une hausse des prix auto-entretenue. Ce que le FMI qualifie de \u00ab\u00a0second tour incontr\u00f4l\u00e9<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb. Cela risque de peser sur les taux de change.<\/p>\n

Enfin, dans une perspective de moyen long terme, les perspectives de prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 demeurent fragiles, en particulier pour les pays dont les \u00e9conomies sont les moins diversifi\u00e9es. Car nombreux sont les habitants qui voient leurs revenus stagner, en d\u00e9pit des \u00ab\u00a0croissances\u00a0\u00bb du PIB. L\u00e0 encore, les pays \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie plus diversifi\u00e9e pr\u00e9sentent les meilleurs augures.<\/p>\n

Le Magazine de l’Afrique<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La m\u00e9t\u00e9o \u00e9conomique de l\u2019Afrique s\u2019am\u00e9liore progressivement, mais les nuages demeurent nombreux et obscurcissent les pr\u00e9visions, juge le FMI qui pronostique une meilleure croissance en…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3758,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-actualite-economique","wpcat-23-id","wpcat-8-id"],"yoast_head":"\nLe FMI entrevoit des \u00e9claircies \u00e0 l\u2019horizon - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=5436\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Le FMI entrevoit des \u00e9claircies \u00e0 l\u2019horizon - 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