{"id":5295,"date":"2023-09-18T13:14:14","date_gmt":"2023-09-18T13:14:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=5295"},"modified":"2023-09-18T13:16:18","modified_gmt":"2023-09-18T13:16:18","slug":"la-dette-mondiale-retrouve-sa-tendance-a-la-hausse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=5295","title":{"rendered":"La dette mondiale retrouve sa tendance \u00e0 la hausse"},"content":{"rendered":"

Par: Vitor Gaspar, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Jiae Yoo<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bien que la dette mondiale ait enregistr\u00e9 une nouvelle baisse consid\u00e9rable en 2022, elle reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e et sa viabilit\u00e9 pr\u00e9occupante.<\/strong><\/p>\n

La charge de la dette mondiale a recul\u00e9 pour la deuxi\u00e8me ann\u00e9e cons\u00e9cutive, m\u00eame si elle reste sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 son niveau d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9lev\u00e9 d\u2019avant la pand\u00e9mie, selon la derni\u00e8re mise \u00e0 jour de notre base de donn\u00e9es mondiale sur la dette<\/a>. La dette totale repr\u00e9sentait 238 % du produit int\u00e9rieur brut mondial l\u2019ann\u00e9e derni\u00e8re, soit 9 points de pourcentage de plus qu\u2019en 2019. En dollars am\u00e9ricains, la dette s\u2019\u00e9levait \u00e0 235 000 milliards de dollars, soit 200 milliards de dollars de plus qu\u2019en 2021.<\/p>\n

Au cours des prochaines ann\u00e9es, les d\u00e9cideurs devront faire preuve d\u2019un engagement r\u00e9solu pour pr\u00e9server la viabilit\u00e9 de la dette.<\/p>\n

\"cadre<\/p>\n

Malgr\u00e9 le rebond de la croissance \u00e0 partir de 2020 et une inflation largement sup\u00e9rieure aux pr\u00e9visions, la dette publique est rest\u00e9e obstin\u00e9ment \u00e9lev\u00e9e. Les d\u00e9ficits budg\u00e9taires en sont notamment responsables, car de nombreux pays ont d\u00e9pens\u00e9 plus pour stimuler la croissance et r\u00e9pondre \u00e0 la flamb\u00e9e des prix des denr\u00e9es alimentaires et de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, alors m\u00eame qu\u2019ils mettaient fin au soutien budg\u00e9taire li\u00e9 \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est pourquoi la dette publique n\u2019a diminu\u00e9 que de 8 points de pourcentage du PIB au cours des deux derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, ce qui n\u2019a compens\u00e9 que la moiti\u00e9 environ de l\u2019augmentation li\u00e9e \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie, selon notre dernier num\u00e9ro du Global Debt Monitor<\/a> (moniteur de la dette mondiale). La dette priv\u00e9e, qui comprend la dette des m\u00e9nages et des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s non financi\u00e8res, a diminu\u00e9 plus rapidement, de 12 points de pourcentage du PIB. Mais cette baisse n\u2019a pas suffi \u00e0 neutraliser l\u2019augmentation due \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie.<\/p>\n

Quels facteurs d\u00e9terminent la tendance en mati\u00e8re de dette\u00a0?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Avant la pand\u00e9mie, les ratios dette mondiale\/PIB avaient suivi une trajectoire ascendante pendant des d\u00e9cennies. La dette publique mondiale a tripl\u00e9 depuis le milieu des ann\u00e9es 1970 pour atteindre 92 % du PIB (soit un peu plus de 91 000 milliards de dollars) \u00e0 la fin de 2022. La dette priv\u00e9e a elle aussi tripl\u00e9 pour atteindre 146 % du PIB (soit pr\u00e8s de 144 000 milliards de dollars), mais sur une p\u00e9riode plus longue, entre 1960 et 2022.<\/p>\n

\"cadre<\/p>\n

L\u2019augmentation de la dette mondiale ces derni\u00e8res d\u00e9cennies est en grande partie imputable \u00e0 la Chine, car le volume des emprunts a surpass\u00e9 la croissance \u00e9conomique. Le niveau d\u2019endettement de la Chine, en part du PIB, a quasiment rejoint celui des \u00c9tats-Unis, alors qu\u2019en dollars, sa dette totale est encore nettement inf\u00e9rieure (47 500 milliards de dollars contre pr\u00e8s de 70\u00a0000 milliards de dollars). En ce qui concerne la dette des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s non financi\u00e8res, la part de la Chine (28 %) est la plus importante au monde.<\/p>\n

La dette des pays en d\u00e9veloppement \u00e0 faible revenu a \u00e9galement consid\u00e9rablement augment\u00e9 ces vingt derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es, bien qu\u2019en partant d\u2019un niveau plus bas initialement. M\u00eame si la dette de ces pays, en particulier la dette priv\u00e9e, reste en moyenne relativement faible compar\u00e9e \u00e0 celle des pays avanc\u00e9s et \u00e9mergents, son augmentation rapide depuis la crise financi\u00e8re mondiale engendre des difficult\u00e9s et des facteurs de vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9. Plus de la moiti\u00e9 des pays en d\u00e9veloppement \u00e0 faible revenu sont en situation de surendettement ou pr\u00e9sentent un risque \u00e9lev\u00e9 de surendettement, et environ un cinqui\u00e8me des pays \u00e9mergents ont \u00e9mis des obligations souveraines qui s\u2019\u00e9changent \u00e0 des prix fortement d\u00e9cot\u00e9s.<\/p>\n

Rem\u00e9dier aux facteurs de vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 li\u00e9s \u00e0 la dette<\/strong><\/p>\n

Les pouvoirs publics doivent prendre des mesures de toute urgence pour r\u00e9duire les facteurs de vuln\u00e9rabilit\u00e9 de la dette et inverser les tendances de la dette \u00e0 long terme. Pour la dette du secteur priv\u00e9, cela pourrait notamment consister \u00e0 suivre de pr\u00e8s l\u2019endettement des m\u00e9nages et des soci\u00e9t\u00e9s non financi\u00e8res ainsi que les risques correspondants pour la stabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re. En ce qui concerne la dette publique, l\u2019instauration d\u2019un cadre budg\u00e9taire cr\u00e9dible pourrait guider le processus visant \u00e0 mieux concilier les besoins de d\u00e9penses et la viabilit\u00e9 de la dette.<\/p>\n

Pour les pays en d\u00e9veloppement \u00e0 faible revenu, il s\u2019agit avant tout de renforcer leur capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 recouvrer davantage de recettes fiscales ; nous l\u2019avions indiqu\u00e9 dans le Moniteur des finances publiques<\/a> d\u2019avril dernier. Pour ceux dont la dette est insoutenable, il convient aussi d\u2019adopter une strat\u00e9gie plus globale, associant discipline budg\u00e9taire et la restructuration de la dette au titre du cadre commun du Groupe des Vingt (le m\u00e9canisme multilat\u00e9ral d\u2019annulation et de restructuration de la dette souveraine), le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant, comme soulign\u00e9 dans les Perspectives de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale<\/em> du mois d\u2019avril.<\/p>\n

Par ailleurs, il ne faut pas oublier qu\u2019en r\u00e9duisant la charge de la dette, un espace budg\u00e9taire se d\u00e9gage qui permet de r\u00e9aliser de nouveaux investissements, ce qui contribuera \u00e0 stimuler la croissance \u00e9conomique dans les ann\u00e9es \u00e0 venir. Appliquer aux march\u00e9s du travail et des produits des r\u00e9formes qui augmentent la production potentielle \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle nationale vont dans le sens de cet objectif. La coop\u00e9ration internationale en mati\u00e8re de fiscalit\u00e9, notamment sur la taxation du carbone, pourrait \u00e9galement att\u00e9nuer les tensions qui s\u2019exercent sur le financement public.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Par: Vitor Gaspar, Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro, Jiae Yoo Bien que la dette mondiale ait enregistr\u00e9 une nouvelle baisse consid\u00e9rable en 2022, elle reste \u00e9lev\u00e9e et sa…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":736,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5295","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-contribution","wpcat-16-id"],"yoast_head":"\nLa dette mondiale retrouve sa tendance \u00e0 la hausse - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=5295\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"La dette mondiale retrouve sa tendance \u00e0 la hausse - 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