{"id":5056,"date":"2023-07-31T11:11:07","date_gmt":"2023-07-31T11:11:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=5056"},"modified":"2023-07-31T11:11:23","modified_gmt":"2023-07-31T11:11:23","slug":"conjoncture-resilience-a-court-terme-et-difficultes-persistantes-conjoncture-resilience-a-court-terme-et-difficultes-persistantes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=5056","title":{"rendered":"Conjoncture : R\u00e9silience \u00e0 court terme et difficult\u00e9s persistantes Conjoncture : R\u00e9silience \u00e0 court terme et difficult\u00e9s persistantes"},"content":{"rendered":"

Le FMI a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement ajust\u00e9 en hausse ses pr\u00e9visions de croissance pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale, pr\u00e9venant que les incertitudes restent \u00e9lev\u00e9es. Les tensions inflationnistes restent vives, mais l\u2019assagissement des prix pourrait, cette fois, \u00eatre plus rapide que redout\u00e9.<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

La croissance mondiale devrait passer de 3,5% en 2022 \u00e0 3% en 2023 et 2024, pronostique d\u00e9sormais le FMI. L\u2019institution, qui actualise ce 25 juillet ses Perspectives de l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale<\/em> publi\u00e9es en avril, rel\u00e8ve donc l\u00e9g\u00e8rement ses pr\u00e9visions pour l\u2019ann\u00e9e en cours. Toutefois, les \u00e9conomistes ne t\u00e9moignent pas un enthousiasme excessif. Ils rappellent que ces pr\u00e9visions restent bien en de\u00e7\u00e0 de la croissance potentielle pr\u00e9vue historiquement. Si les nouvelles sont plut\u00f4t rassurantes du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la pand\u00e9mie de la Covid-19, la hausse des taux directeurs appliqu\u00e9e par les banques centrales pour lutter contre l\u2019inflation continue de peser sur l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, la croissance en Afrique subsaharienne est attendue \u00e0 3,5% en 2023 et 4,1% en 2024, un glissement de 0,1 point par rapport aux pr\u00e9visions d\u2019avril. Les pr\u00e9visions pour le Nigeria (+3,2% et +3,0%) sont pourtant inchang\u00e9es.\u00a0\u00bb<\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Sur ce point, le FMI pronostique un modeste ralentissement de l\u2019inflation en 2023, \u00e0 6,8% (contre 8,7% en 2022), puis 5,2% en 2024. Hors \u00e9nergie et alimentation, le ralentissement de l\u2019inflation serait plus graduel. Sur le plan de l\u2019\u00e9quilibre du syst\u00e8me financier mondial, en revanche, le FMI fait part de sa s\u00e9r\u00e9nit\u00e9, apr\u00e8s les turbulences du d\u00e9but d\u2019ann\u00e9e autour des banques am\u00e9ricaines et suisses.<\/p>\n

Bien s\u00fbr, ces pronostics sont assortis de commentaires plus n\u00e9gatifs sur les facteurs de risque qui menacent \u00e0 l\u2019horizon, y compris pour la sph\u00e8re financi\u00e8re : le premier \u00e9tant li\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019intensification de la guerre en Ukraine. Le deuxi\u00e8me est l\u2019acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration des ph\u00e9nom\u00e8nes m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques extr\u00eames.<\/p>\n

En Chine, la reprise pourrait ralentir, \u00e0 cause de probl\u00e8mes non r\u00e9solus dans le secteur immobilier, ce qui engendrerait des effets de contagion en dehors du pays. \u00c0 l\u2019inverse, le FMI n\u2019exclut pas un ralentissement plus rapide que pr\u00e9vu de l\u2019inflation. De quoi permettre aux banques centrales de ne pas peser exag\u00e9r\u00e9ment sur le loyer de l\u2019argent.<\/p>\n

Pour 2023, le FMI pr\u00e9voit une croissance de 1,5% aux \u00c9tats-Unis, de 0,9% seulement dans la zone euro, l\u2019Allemagne pouvant enregistrer une l\u00e9g\u00e8re r\u00e9cession (-0,3%). De leur c\u00f4t\u00e9, les pays dits \u00e9mergents, ou en d\u00e9veloppement devraient afficher une croissance 4% cette ann\u00e9e et de 4,1% l\u2019an prochain, pronostique le FMI qui n\u2019a que faiblement ajust\u00e9 ses pronostics, ici.<\/p>\n

De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, la croissance en Afrique subsaharienne est attendue \u00e0 3,5% en 2023 et 4,1% en 2024, un glissement de 0,1 point par rapport aux pr\u00e9visions d\u2019avril. Les pr\u00e9visions pour le Nigeria (+3,2% et +3,0%) sont pourtant inchang\u00e9es. Le pays reste sous la menace \u00ab de probl\u00e8mes de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 dans le secteur p\u00e9trolier<\/em> \u00bb.<\/p>\n

Une difficile \u00e9quation<\/strong><\/p>\n

De son c\u00f4t\u00e9, l\u2019Afrique du Sud devrait n\u2019afficher qu\u2019une modeste de croissance de 0,3% cette ann\u00e9e, en raison des p\u00e9nuries d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. Toutefois, le FMI salue \u00ab la r\u00e9silience de l\u2019activit\u00e9 dans le secteur des services au premier trimestre <\/em>\u00bb.<\/p>\n

\"\"Les r\u00e9visions en baisse sont un peu plus sensibles pour la zone Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord : 2,6% en 2022 (-0.5 point) et 3,1% en 2024 (-0,3 point) ; le FMI a notamment revu en forte baisse la croissance de l\u2019Arabie saoudite, en raison des r\u00e9ductions de production de p\u00e9trole annonc\u00e9es par l\u2019OPEP.<\/p>\n

Pour le FMI, donc, priorit\u00e9 doit \u00eatre donn\u00e9e \u00e0 la ma\u00eetrise de l\u2019inflation ; ce, par l\u2019action des banques centrales, bien s\u00fbr, mais \u00e9galement par la ma\u00eetrise budg\u00e9taire des \u00c9tats, \u2013 r\u00e9duction des d\u00e9penses ou hausses d\u2019imp\u00f4ts \u2013 qui renforce la cr\u00e9dibilit\u00e9 des politiques d\u00e9sinflationnistes et all\u00e8ge la dette. \u00c9quation difficile, sans doute, car les pays doivent aussi reconstituer leurs r\u00e9serves budg\u00e9taires et prot\u00e9ger les populations vuln\u00e9rables. Il semble juste au FMI d\u2019am\u00e9liorer l\u2019offre de travail et d\u2019accro\u00eetre la r\u00e9silience face au changement climatique. Enfin, il est n\u00e9cessaire d\u2019enrayer la p\u00e9nurie de financement pour les pays en d\u00e9veloppement et les pays \u00e0 faible revenu, reconna\u00eet le FMI, qui constate d\u2019importants \u00e9carts de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat avec les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s. Les \u00e9conomistes distinguent 18 pays pour lesquels les \u00e9carts de taux se situent \u00ab \u00e0 des niveaux pr\u00e9occupants<\/em> \u00bb. En 2023, ces \u00e9carts \u00e9lev\u00e9s ont rendu tr\u00e8s difficile jusqu\u2019\u00e0 pr\u00e9sent l\u2019\u00e9mission de nouveaux titres de cr\u00e9ance en monnaie forte pour les pays pr\u00e9\u00e9mergents.<\/p>\n

Le Magazine de l’Afrique<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Le FMI a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement ajust\u00e9 en hausse ses pr\u00e9visions de croissance pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale, pr\u00e9venant que les incertitudes restent \u00e9lev\u00e9es. Les tensions inflationnistes restent vives,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5057,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5056","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyse","wpcat-15-id"],"yoast_head":"\nConjoncture : R\u00e9silience \u00e0 court terme et difficult\u00e9s persistantes Conjoncture : R\u00e9silience \u00e0 court terme et difficult\u00e9s persistantes - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=5056\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Conjoncture : R\u00e9silience \u00e0 court terme et difficult\u00e9s persistantes Conjoncture : R\u00e9silience \u00e0 court terme et difficult\u00e9s persistantes - challenges economiques\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le FMI a l\u00e9g\u00e8rement ajust\u00e9 en hausse ses pr\u00e9visions de croissance pour l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale, pr\u00e9venant que les incertitudes restent \u00e9lev\u00e9es. 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