{"id":3101,"date":"2022-04-09T16:07:53","date_gmt":"2022-04-09T16:07:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=3101"},"modified":"2022-04-09T16:08:18","modified_gmt":"2022-04-09T16:08:18","slug":"des-tensions-inflationnistes-contenues-mais-palpables","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=3101","title":{"rendered":"Des tensions inflationnistes contenues, mais palpables"},"content":{"rendered":"

Thi\u00e9moko Meyliet Kon\u00e9, gouverneur de la BCEAO<\/strong><\/p>\n

La BCEAO se dit attentive \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution des prix en Afrique de l\u2019Ouest. Lesquels sont exacerb\u00e9s par des facteurs autant externes (pand\u00e9mie, Ukraine) qu\u2019internes (mauvaises r\u00e9coltes, tensions politiques). Pour l\u2019heure, le soutien \u00e0 la relance post-Covid reste prioritaire.<\/strong><\/p>\n

La Banque centrale des \u00c9tats d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest a d\u00e9cid\u00e9, le mois dernier, de maintenir sa politique mon\u00e9taire inchang\u00e9e. Pourtant, son Comit\u00e9 de politique mon\u00e9taire avait pris connaissance d\u2019une note de conjoncture, publi\u00e9e le 31 mars, pr\u00e9venant des menaces inflationnistes \u00e0 court et moyen terme. Aussi, la BCEAO pr\u00e9vient-elle qu\u2019elle restera vigilante \u00e0 la dynamique d\u2019\u00e9volution des prix et qu\u2019\u00ab elle prendra, le cas \u00e9ch\u00e9ant, les mesures n\u00e9cessaires pur assurer la stabilit\u00e9 des prix <\/em>\u00bb. Comprendre, relever les taux directeurs et ainsi r\u00e9duire la croissance de la masse mon\u00e9taire. Il semble que pour l\u2019heure, le banquier central d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest se pr\u00e9occupe surtout du ralentissement \u00e9conomique, visible dans les pays occidentaux clients, redoutant \u00e9galement des ruptures dans la cha\u00eene d\u2019approvisionnement.<\/p>\n

\u00ab <\/strong>Si l<\/em>a reprise de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique mondiale a \u00e9t\u00e9 vigoureuse en 2021, l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale aborde l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2022 dans des conditions moins favorables que pr\u00e9vu \u00bb, <\/em>soulignent les \u00e9conomistes de la BCEAO.<\/p>\n

Qui estiment que les perspectives de croissance mondiale pr\u00e9sentent \u00e9galement une balance des risques orient\u00e9e \u00e0 la baisse, devant l\u2019\u00e9mergence de nouveaux variants du coronavirus, la persistance des perturbations des cha\u00eenes d\u2019approvisionnement, le rel\u00e8vement des taux directeurs par les pays avanc\u00e9s et l\u2019intensification des tensions g\u00e9opolitiques qui pourraient exacerber la hausse des prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res.  Les pr\u00e9visions de croissance pour la zone UEMOA (6,1% en 2022 et 7,9% en 2023) \u00ab restent entour\u00e9es de risques fortement baissiers li\u00e9s notamment \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution des situations s\u00e9curitaire et socio-politique dans la sous-r\u00e9gion, ainsi qu\u2019aux conditions m\u00e9t\u00e9orologiques. \u00bb <\/em><\/p>\n

Pas de panique toutefois, la consolidation budg\u00e9taire (r\u00e9duction des d\u00e9ficits publics) devrait se poursuivre, les d\u00e9ficits repassant sous les 3% \u00e0 compter de 2024. Au plan des \u00e9changes ext\u00e9rieurs, le d\u00e9ficit courant devrait se stabiliser cette ann\u00e9e et r\u00e9duire en 2023, essentiellement, il est vrai, en raison des exportations de p\u00e9trole du Niger et du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal. De plus, l\u2019exc\u00e9dent de la balance des paiements ne ferait que cro\u00eetre.<\/p>\n

Des hausses de taux pr\u00e9judiciables<\/strong><\/p>\n

Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des prix, les \u00e9conomistes pr\u00e9voient une inflation de 4,9% en 2022, ramen\u00e9e \u00e0 2,8% en 2023, apr\u00e8s 3,6% en 2021. Si tout va bien, l\u2019inflation serait m\u00eame ramen\u00e9e \u00e0 2,6%, en glissement annuel, au quatri\u00e8me trimestre 2023, c\u2019est-\u00e0-dire dans la zone cible (1,0% \u00e0 3,0%) de la politique mon\u00e9taire.<\/p>\n

L\u2019hypoth\u00e8se sous-jacente est que progressivement, les tensions inflationnistes vont diminuer, m\u00eame moins vite qu\u2019il n\u2019\u00e9tait pr\u00e9vu en fin d\u2019ann\u00e9e 2021, \u00e0 la faveur d\u2019une crise sanitaire moins pesante. C\u2019est-\u00e0-dire que les \u00e9changes commerciaux reprennent un cours normal.<\/p>\n

Hypoth\u00e8se qui serait invalid\u00e9e si la crise sanitaire venait \u00e0 se prolonger. Et si le rel\u00e8vement des taux d\u00e9cid\u00e9 par les banques centrales des pays avanc\u00e9s \u00ab venait \u00e0 compromettre la stabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re et<\/em> faire surgir des risques pour les flux de capitaux, les devises et les finances publiques des pays \u00e9mergents et en d\u00e9veloppement<\/em> \u00bb, pr\u00e9vient l\u2019institution mon\u00e9taire. Pour l\u2019heure, ce n\u2019est pas le cas, mais ces pays sont fragiles, surtout apr\u00e8s l\u2019augmentation cons\u00e9quente des niveaux d\u2019endettement au cours des deux derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es.<\/p>\n

Enfin, une perturbation des cha\u00eenes d\u2019approvisionnement, pour des motifs sanitaires ou de tensions politiques, pourrait entraver la circulation des marchandises essentielles \u00e0 la sant\u00e9 publique.<\/p>\n

Concernant l\u2019inflation, la BCEAO mise sur un cours moyen du p\u00e9trole brut de 100 dollars le baril en 2022, contre 71,5 $ en 2021, avant un repli \u00e0 92,5 $ en moyenne l\u2019ann\u00e9e prochaine. De leur c\u00f4t\u00e9, les prix des principaux produits non \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques export\u00e9s par les pays de l\u2019Union devraient poursuivre leur raffermissement au cours des ann\u00e9es 2022 et 2023, sous l\u2019effet de la reprise de la demande \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale et de l\u2019am\u00e9lioration des perspectives \u00e9conomiques.  Quant aux produits alimentaires import\u00e9s par l\u2019Union, on peut s\u2019attendre \u00e0 une hausse des cours mondiaux en 2022 (+10%) et 2023 (+5%).<\/p>\n

D\u00e9pendance \u00e0 la pluviom\u00e9trie<\/strong><\/p>\n

En Afrique de l\u2019Ouest, la BCEAO veut croire au succ\u00e8s des campagnes de vaccination, et donc \u00e0 l\u2019absence de mesures drastiques de confinement. En revanche, la campagne agricole 2021-2022 a \u00e9t\u00e9 peu satisfaisante dans la plupart des \u00c9tats membres de l\u2019Union, particuli\u00e8rement dans les pays sah\u00e9liens, du fait de l\u2019apparition de poches de s\u00e9cheresse et de l\u2019arr\u00eat pr\u00e9coce des pluies.<\/p>\n

Pour la prochaine campagne 2022-2023, le sc\u00e9nario central retient une hausse de 5,0% de la production c\u00e9r\u00e9ali\u00e8re, sous l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se d\u2019une bonne pluviom\u00e9trie.<\/p>\n

Tout cela ne sera pas sans cons\u00e9quences sur les prix. En effet, les tensions observ\u00e9es sur les cours de certains produits alimentaires import\u00e9s notamment le bl\u00e9, le sucre et les huiles pourraient \u00eatre r\u00e9percut\u00e9es sur les prix \u00e0 la consommation. Enfin, la persistance de la hausse des cours mondiaux du p\u00e9trole brut pourrait se traduire par un rench\u00e9rissement des prix \u00e0 la pompe.<\/p>\n

Le Magazine de l’Afrique<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Thi\u00e9moko Meyliet Kon\u00e9, gouverneur de la BCEAO La BCEAO se dit attentive \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution des prix en Afrique de l\u2019Ouest. Lesquels sont exacerb\u00e9s par des…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[23,15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-a-la-une","category-analyse","wpcat-23-id","wpcat-15-id"],"yoast_head":"\nDes tensions inflationnistes contenues, mais palpables - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=3101\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Des tensions inflationnistes contenues, mais palpables - challenges economiques\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Thi\u00e9moko Meyliet Kon\u00e9, gouverneur de la BCEAO La BCEAO se dit attentive \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9volution des prix en Afrique de l\u2019Ouest. 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