{"id":2576,"date":"2022-01-29T23:01:01","date_gmt":"2022-01-29T23:01:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=2576"},"modified":"2022-01-29T23:01:26","modified_gmt":"2022-01-29T23:01:26","slug":"etats-unis-et-chine-plombent-la-croissance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=2576","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9tats-Unis et Chine plombent la croissance"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Le FMI ajuste en forte baisse ses pr\u00e9visions de croissance mondiale pour 2022, \u00e0 4,4%. Dans ce contexte, l\u2019Afrique subsaharienne est plut\u00f4t \u00e9pargn\u00e9e. Le continent devra veiller \u00e0 ne pas subir l\u2019inflation et les possibles remont\u00e9s de taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00ab&nbsp;<em>L\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale aborde 2022 dans une position plus faible que pr\u00e9vu<\/em>&nbsp;\u00bb, constate le FMI. L\u2019organise ajuste en sensible baisse ses pr\u00e9visions de croissance mondiale pour 2022, mais envisage toujours une croissance solide pour l\u2019an prochain. Les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Chine sont les principaux foyers de ce retard, qui s\u2019observera aussi dans quelques pays \u00e9mergents ou en d\u00e9veloppement.<\/p>\n<p>L\u2019Afrique subsaharienne dans son ensemble est \u00e0 l\u2019abri d\u2019un nouveau choc \u00e9conomique&nbsp;: le FMI pr\u00e9voit une croissance de 3,7% cette ann\u00e9e, soit un simple ajustement \u00e0 la baisse de 0,1 point. R\u00e9vision identique pour 2023, ann\u00e9e pour laquelle le FMI pr\u00e9voit une croissance 4%, tout comme en 2021, d\u2019apr\u00e8s ses estimations.<\/p>\n<p>Le FMI pr\u00e9voit toujours une croissance modeste pour le Nigeria (+2,7%) cette ann\u00e9e, et se montre un peu plus pessimiste pour l\u2019Afrique du Sud (-0,3 point \u00e0 1,9%). \u00ab&nbsp;<em>Les pr\u00e9visions de croissance de l\u2019Afrique du Sud sont corrig\u00e9es \u00e0 la baisse, \u00e0 la lumi\u00e8re d\u2019un second semestre 2021 moins dynamique que pr\u00e9vu et de perspectives d\u2019investissement d\u00e9grad\u00e9es par la morosit\u00e9 persistante du climat des affaires<\/em>&nbsp;\u00bb, expliquent les \u00e9conomistes.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c0 noter un ajustement en hausse des pr\u00e9visions de croissance pour la r\u00e9gion MENA (Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord) \u00e0 4,4% (+0,3 point) en 2022&nbsp;; la pr\u00e9vision pour 2023 n\u2019est que marginalement revue (-0,1 point \u00e0 3,4%).<\/p>\n<p>Alors que se r\u00e9pand le nouveau variant de la Covid-19, Omicron, les pays restreignent \u00e0 nouveau les d\u00e9placements. Du fait de l\u2019augmentation du prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie et des ruptures d\u2019approvisionnement, l\u2019inflation est plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e et plus g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9e que pr\u00e9vu, en particulier aux \u00c9tats-Unis et dans de nombreux pays \u00e9mergents et en d\u00e9veloppement. La hausse du prix des produits alimentaires a contribu\u00e9 \u00e0 l\u2019inflation, par exemple en Afrique subsaharienne.<\/p>\n<p>La croissance mondiale devrait passer de 5,9 % en 2021 \u00e0 4,4 % en 2022, soit un demi-point de pourcentage de moins pour 2022 que pr\u00e9vu en octobre dernier. Voil\u00e0 qui met \u00e0 mal les pr\u00e9visions retenues pour le programme de relance <em>Build Back Better<\/em> (Reconstruire en mieux).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ralentissement du commerce mondial<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>En 2023, la croissance mondiale devrait ralentir et s\u2019\u00e9tablir \u00e0 3,8 % (+0,2 point que pr\u00e9vu initialement), juge le FMI qui esp\u00e8re une lev\u00e9e progressive des freins \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9conomie, sensible au cours du second semestre 2022. Pour valider ces hypoth\u00e8ses, il faudra que la situation sanitaire s\u2019am\u00e9liore dans la plupart des pays, \u00e0 la faveur d\u2019une meilleure vaccination et de traitements plus efficaces.<\/p>\n<p>Reste donc un gros point noir&nbsp;: \u00ab&nbsp;<em>la forte inflation<\/em>&nbsp;\u00bb qui devrait persister plus longtemps que pr\u00e9vu. En effet, les perturbations des cha\u00eenes d\u2019approvisionnement et les prix \u00e9lev\u00e9s de l\u2019\u00e9nergie devraient se maintenir en 2022. Toutefois, si les anticipations d\u2019inflation restent bien ancr\u00e9es, l\u2019inflation devrait progressivement diminuer \u00e0 mesure que les d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres entre l\u2019offre et la demande s\u2019att\u00e9nuent en 2022 et que la politique mon\u00e9taire des principales \u00e9conomies produit ses effets.<\/p>\n<p>D\u2019autre part, le commerce mondial devrait ralentir en 2022 et 2023, \u00e0 l\u2019instar du rythme global de l\u2019expansion. En supposant que la pand\u00e9mie se calme en 2022, les probl\u00e8mes d\u2019approvisionnement devraient s\u2019att\u00e9nuer cette ann\u00e9e. Le fl\u00e9chissement connexe de la demande mondiale de biens contribuera \u00e9galement \u00e0 combler les d\u00e9s\u00e9quilibres. Le commerce transfrontalier des services, en particulier le tourisme, devrait rester mod\u00e9r\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Quels sont les facteurs de risque, hors ceux li\u00e9s \u00e0 la pand\u00e9mie&nbsp;? D\u2019un c\u00f4t\u00e9, que les pressions salariales, dans les pays d\u00e9velopp\u00e9s, coupl\u00e9es \u00e0 la volatilit\u00e9 des prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie, ne viennent accentuer l\u2019incertitude.<\/p>\n<p>D\u2019un autre c\u00f4t\u00e9, que le rel\u00e8vement des taux directeurs par les pays avanc\u00e9s ne vienne mettre en p\u00e9ril la stabilit\u00e9 financi\u00e8re et faire surgir des risques pour les flux de capitaux, les devises et les finances publiques des pays \u00e9mergents et en d\u00e9veloppement. Le FMI \u2013 cela devient une habitude&nbsp;\u2013, alerte aussi sur les risques \u00e9lev\u00e9s de catastrophes naturelles, face \u00e0 l\u2019urgence climatique. Et pr\u00e9vient&nbsp;: \u00ab&nbsp;<em>Sachant que la pand\u00e9mie maintient son emprise, une strat\u00e9gie de sant\u00e9 mondiale efficace s\u2019impose plus que jamais.<\/em>&nbsp;\u00bb<\/p>\n<p><strong>Le Magazine de l&rsquo;Afrique<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le FMI ajuste en forte baisse ses pr\u00e9visions de croissance mondiale pour 2022, \u00e0 4,4%. Dans ce contexte, l\u2019Afrique subsaharienne est plut\u00f4t \u00e9pargn\u00e9e. Le continent&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1940,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2576","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualite-economique","category-infos-eco","wpcat-8-id","wpcat-10-id"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u00c9tats-Unis et Chine plombent la croissance - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=2576\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u00c9tats-Unis et Chine plombent la croissance - challenges economiques\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Le FMI ajuste en forte baisse ses pr\u00e9visions de croissance mondiale pour 2022, \u00e0 4,4%. 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