{"id":1404,"date":"2021-06-21T12:56:32","date_gmt":"2021-06-21T12:56:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=1404"},"modified":"2021-06-21T12:57:22","modified_gmt":"2021-06-21T12:57:22","slug":"conjoncture-la-bceao-ecarte-tout-risque-inflationniste","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=1404","title":{"rendered":"Conjoncture : La Bceao \u00e9carte tout risque inflationniste"},"content":{"rendered":"

La Banque centrale des \u00c9tats d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest mise sur une solide reprise des \u00e9conomies ouest-africaines en 2021. Elle consid\u00e8re que le rythme de l\u2019inflation restera sensiblement inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 3% l\u2019an, au cours des 24 prochains mois.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Par visioconf\u00e9rence, le Comit\u00e9 de politique mon\u00e9taire (CPM) de la BCEAO (Banque centrale des \u00c9tats d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest) a tenu sa r\u00e9union trimestrielle, le 9 juin 2021. Maintenant sa politique mon\u00e9taire inchang\u00e9e, l\u2019institution dirig\u00e9e par le gouverneur Tiemoko Meyliet Kone s\u2019est montr\u00e9e rassurante, tant concernant la conjoncture \u00e9conomique de la r\u00e9gion que sur les craintes d\u2019une r\u00e9surgence de l\u2019inflation.<\/p>\n

Actant la reprise de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique au premier trimestre 2021, le CPM retient l\u2019hypoth\u00e8se du FMI selon lequel l\u2019\u00e9conomie mondiale conna\u00eetrait en 2021 une reprise forte, de l\u2019ordre de 6,0%.<\/p>\n

Les cours des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res ont, dans l\u2019ensemble, poursuivi leur tendance haussi\u00e8re pour le troisi\u00e8me trimestre cons\u00e9cutif, sous l\u2019effet de la reprise de la demande \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chelle mondiale et de la persistance de contraintes pesant sur l\u2019offre.<\/p>\n

Les prix de l\u2019\u00e9nergie ont connu une augmentation de 35,3%, ceux des produits de base non \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques de 27,8%. Dans leur sillage, les prix des mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res non \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques export\u00e9es par les pays de l\u2019Union ont augment\u00e9 de 5,1% au cours du premier trimestre, apr\u00e8s +2,7% un trimestre plus t\u00f4t.<\/p>\n

Toutefois, les prix des principaux produits alimentaires import\u00e9s par les pays ouest-africains ont augment\u00e9 de 19,4% au premier trimestre 2021, apr\u00e8s + 11,2% un trimestre auparavant. Cette inflation import\u00e9e n\u2019inqui\u00e8te donc pas le banquier central. Il est vrai qu\u2019elle n\u2019a fait qu\u2019accompagner une reprise de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique (+3,2% au premier trimestre), port\u00e9e par l\u2019ensemble des secteurs d\u2019activit\u00e9, cons\u00e9cutivement au regain de vigueur de la demande int\u00e9rieure.<\/p>\n

De plus, en d\u00e9pit des tensions inflationnistes mondiales, le CPM a relev\u00e9 une d\u00e9c\u00e9l\u00e9ration des prix \u00e0 la consommation au premier trimestre 2021, le taux d\u2019inflation ressortant \u00e0 2,2% contre 2,7% un trimestre plus t\u00f4t. Cette baisse du rythme de progression des prix au niveau de la sous-r\u00e9gion est imputable essentiellement \u00e0 la hausse de moindre ampleur des prix des produits alimentaires. \u00c0 l\u2019horizon de 24 mois, soit \u00e0 fin mars 2023, le rythme d\u2019inflation devrait se situer \u00e0 1,9%, soit dans la fourchette (1,0% \u2013 3,0%) d\u00e9finie pour la politique mon\u00e9taire dans l\u2019UMOA.<\/p>\n

C\u2019est pourquoi la zone devrait enregistrer une croissance 5,6% en 2021, apr\u00e8s le modeste 1,5% atteint l\u2019an pass\u00e9. \u00ab\u00a0La consolidation de la reprise de l\u2019activit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique dans l\u2019Union serait port\u00e9e par une bonne ex\u00e9cution des plans de relance, le maintien des mesures de soutien budg\u00e9taire et mon\u00e9taire ainsi qu\u2019une am\u00e9lioration de la situation s\u00e9curitaire<\/em>\u00a0\u00bb, fait observer le Comit\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Des r\u00e9serves de change consolid\u00e9es<\/strong><\/p>\n

Le premier trimestre 2021 s\u2019est achev\u00e9 par att\u00e9nuation du d\u00e9ficit budg\u00e9taire global des pays de l\u2019Union, \u00e0 2,9% du PIB contre 4,5% en 2020, r\u00e9v\u00e8le la BCEAO. Cette \u00e9volution r\u00e9sulte d\u2019un accroissement des recettes et dons plus importants que celui des d\u00e9penses publiques.<\/p>\n

Sur le march\u00e9 mon\u00e9taire, les conditions financi\u00e8res sont rest\u00e9es favorables, en ligne avec l\u2019orientation accommodante de la politique mon\u00e9taire men\u00e9e par la Banque centrale. Par exemple, le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat moyen pond\u00e9r\u00e9 des bons du Tr\u00e9sor est ressorti \u00e0 3,6% contre 4,5% un an auparavant.<\/p>\n

En mati\u00e8re mon\u00e9taire, la masse mon\u00e9taire a connu une acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration (+21,5% en rythme annuel), contre +16,5% un trimestre plus t\u00f4t. En particulier, les cr\u00e9ances sur l\u2019\u00e9conomie se sont accrues de 6,5% sur un an. R\u00e9sultat encourageant\u00a0: les r\u00e9serves de change de l\u2019Union se sont consolid\u00e9es. Elles assurent 6,7 mois d\u2019importations de biens et services contre 5,9 mois au trimestre pr\u00e9c\u00e9dent.<\/p>\n

Sur la base de ces analyses, le CPM a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de maintenir inchang\u00e9s le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat minimum de soumission aux op\u00e9rations d\u2019appels d\u2019offres d\u2019injection de liquidit\u00e9 \u00e0 2,00% et le taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat du guichet de pr\u00eat marginal \u00e0 4,00%. Des niveaux en vigueur depuis le 24 juin 2020. Le coefficient de r\u00e9serves obligatoires applicable aux banques de l\u2019Union demeure inchang\u00e9 \u00e0 3,0%.<\/p>\n

Dans les mois \u00e0 venir, la BCEAO \u00ab\u00a0continuera \u00e0 mettre en \u0153uvre une politique mon\u00e9taire assurant la stabilit\u00e9 des prix, tout en soutenant le retour \u00e0 une croissance forte\u00a0<\/em>\u00bb, conclut l\u2019institution.<\/p>\n

Paule Fax<\/strong><\/p>\n

(Source\u00a0: Le magazine de l\u2019Afrique)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La Banque centrale des \u00c9tats d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest mise sur une solide reprise des \u00e9conomies ouest-africaines en 2021. Elle consid\u00e8re que le rythme de l\u2019inflation…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1233,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-infos-eco","wpcat-10-id"],"yoast_head":"\nConjoncture : La Bceao \u00e9carte tout risque inflationniste - challenges economiques<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/challengeseconomiques.com\/?p=1404\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Conjoncture : La Bceao \u00e9carte tout risque inflationniste - challenges economiques\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La Banque centrale des \u00c9tats d\u2019Afrique de l\u2019Ouest mise sur une solide reprise des \u00e9conomies ouest-africaines en 2021. 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